r/prediction-markets

I'm giving $TCEHY a 60% probability of staying above 60.00 through month-end, mainly due to the current consolidation around 61.01 and lack of significant negative catalysts on the immediate horizon. However, any broader market downturn could easily negate that outlook.

Watching the action in $NG today, particularly the move down to 5.325 and subsequent struggle to reclaim much upside, I'm forming a probabilistic view on a significant move lower. The bearish momentum, despite the daily range, feels more than just a retracement. Considering the demand side remaining somewhat muted relative to storage figures, and the broader macro narrative, I'd assign a roughly 60% probability to $NG testing the $5.00 level before end-of-week close. This isn't a hard prediction, but rather an assessment of the current technical and fundamental setup suggesting a higher likelihood of further downside pressure, especially if 5.30 doesn't hold firm on subsequent tests. The risk, of course, is a sudden weather-related demand spike or an unexpected supply disruption, but absent those, the path of least resistance looks south for now.

Alright folks, casting my mind over to the rather volatile playground that is $TRYUSD. We've seen it hover around these levels, currently at 0.02125854, with a range today from 0.02085 to 0.02129404. The setup here, especially looking at the lower bound of that daily range, has me thinking about a push towards 0.022 before month-end.

Now, I'm not saying this is a sure thing – nothing ever is in these markets unless you have a crystal ball I don't. But the consistent pressure we've seen on the Lira, coupled with the general macro environment, suggests that while there might be some resistance at the current level, a significant move isn't off the table. I'd put the odds of seeing 0.022 hit, or even breached briefly, by the close of the month at around 60%. It's not a high-conviction bet, but it's enough to keep an eye on. The political and economic winds seem to be aligning for continued Lira weakness, and unless there's an unexpected intervention or a dramatic shift in policy, that upward momentum for USD against TRY tends to find its way through. Just my two cents, looking for some thoughts on whether others see a similar path unfolding or if I'm just drinking too much Turkish coffee.

Watching $CADJPY closely today, it's been teasing the 115.60 area multiple times but keeps pulling back just shy of a strong push. I'd put the odds of seeing a clean close above 115.6 by end of day at around 40%, maybe a bit less, given the prior rejections and general market caution.

Been watching $GOOG's run and it's certainly had a decent bounce lately, especially today hitting the 372.14 range. Considering the broader tech sentiment and upcoming holiday season, I'd put the probability of $GOOG breaching its prior all-time high by end of Q4 around 60%. The current momentum, coupled with what seems to be a solid earnings outlook for many in the sector, suggests there's still fuel in the tank, though the path will likely be choppy.

I've been watching the $KESUSD pair, and I'm curious what others think about it hitting 0.0078 by the end of next week. Given the recent movement, I'd put the odds around 40-45% myself, wondering if I'm overestimating or underestimating the current momentum.

Watching the macro data closely, I'm thinking about the probability of a downward revision to the initial Q4 GDP print. The recent consumer spending figures, while not disastrous, did show some cooling, and business investment sentiment, particularly outside of big tech, seems to be softening. Given the current $X trading at 54.84, which often reacts to growth expectations, I'd put the odds of a material downward revision (meaning 0.5% or more off the initial estimate) at around 60%. The market seems to be pricing in a relatively smooth landing, but there's enough contradictory data bubbling up to suggest some bumps ahead. It's not a certainty, but the tailwinds feel weaker than initially projected.

Watching $CADJPY closely. It's been hovering around the 115.44 mark, with today's range showing some upward pressure. Given the recent BOC hawkish signals and a general risk-on sentiment that tends to favor commodity currencies, I'd put the probability of us testing 116 before the end of the month at around 65-70%. We'd need to see a clear break above the recent highs around 115.60, but the momentum seems to be building for that next leg.

Considering the current crypto market dynamics and recent price action around $COMP, I'd put the odds of seeing $COMP trading above $15 by the end of Q4 '24 at roughly 60%. The renewed interest in DeFi protocols coupled with a broader market recovery, particularly if BTC sustains above $30k, could provide the necessary tailwinds. However, a significant regulatory development or a broader risk-off move in equities would likely invalidate that outlook.

I'm looking at $MXNJPY, currently at 9.254, and wondering about its chances of clearing the 9.30 level by next week. Given the recent upward momentum and the daily range pushing higher, I'd put the odds around 60% for a brief touch or close above 9.30 if broader risk sentiment holds up.

Considering the recent movement in $MATIC, currently at 0.2826, and the general market sentiment, I'd put the probability of it holding above the 0.28 level through Friday's close at around 65-70%. While it's been volatile, the intraday low of 0.27266 suggests some underlying support has formed on these dips. However, any broader market downturn could easily negate that, so it's not a slam dunk. The current bounce looks like it has a bit more steam left, but resistance around 0.286-0.29 will be key.

Looking at the recent volatility, $IDR took a big dip today but bounced hard off 29.152. I'd put the odds around 60% it revisits that level by end of the week, mainly due to the overall market sentiment still leaning towards risk-off, and that level proving to be significant support.

Considering the current weakness and the momentum, I'd put the odds of $SLV breaking below the 50 mark before month-end at around 65%, especially if we see any further hawkish sentiment from the Fed that strengthens the dollar. The recent move down to 51.78 today suggests it's certainly on the cards if resistance holds firm elsewhere.

I'm giving $SLV about a 60% probability of hitting $55 by the end of May. We've been hovering around the $53-$54 range, currently at $53.95, and with the recent CPI data, there's a good chance we see some continued flight to safe havens or at least a strong retest of the upper end of its recent range if macro concerns persist. It feels like there's still some underlying bullish momentum that could push it a bit further.

Looking at $ZARJPY at 9.889, the move today shows some resilience, but prior attempts to break higher often fizzled. While there's a strong push from carry demand, the local political noise out of South Africa could easily cap any further significant appreciation. I'd put the probability of us seeing 10.00 by month-end at around 35%, contingent on a lack of adverse domestic news for ZAR.

Given current consolidation around $11.72 and general market choppiness, I'd put the probability of $COMP closing above $12.00 by month-end at roughly 60%. The daily range today for $COMP shows some struggle to hold higher levels, but there's underlying support that often kicks in.

Given current market dynamics, I'd put the odds of $NZDJPY closing below 93.00 by month-end at around 40%. The daily range is fairly contained, but any significant shift in risk sentiment could easily push it down, though upside seems limited for now around 93.5.

Hey everyone,

Been watching $CADJPY with some interest lately. We're currently sitting around 114.178, having poked up to 114.27265 earlier today. The recent pullback from the highs feels like it could be a setup for a couple of scenarios into month-end. On one hand, you have the general sentiment of yen weakness, but then you also have the oil price action, which can give CAD a bit of a lift. My gut is that we're going to see some consolidation here rather than a decisive breakout or breakdown in the very near term.

Considering the daily range we've seen, and factoring in month-end flows which can sometimes be a bit whippy, I'd put the odds of $CADJPY staying within a 113.50-114.80 range by October 31st at about 65%. A push above 115 feels less likely right now, maybe 20% odds, given the overhead resistance that's built up. Conversely, a drop below 113.00, perhaps if we see a significant risk-off event or a CAD-specific weakness, I'd peg at around 15%. What are others seeing in their models or just generally feeling about this pair for the next week or so?

Been watching $USDTHB lately and it's certainly had a bit of a run down from its highs. We're currently sitting around 33.31, and I'm wondering about the likelihood of it pushing through the 33.00 handle by the end of the month. On one hand, the recent momentum is clearly to the downside. We've seen a pretty consistent move lower, and if that general sentiment holds, a further drop isn't out of the question. Looking at the daily range today, we hit 33.24 at the low, so there's still a bit of a gap to cover.

However, 33.00 feels like it could be a psychological level, and potentially a technical one too if you zoom out on the charts a bit. I'd put the odds of seeing USDTHB close below 33.00 by say, October 31st, somewhere around 40-45%. My reasoning is that while the trend is down, there could be some profit-taking or short-term support forming around that mark. Plus, any unexpected news out of the US or Thailand could easily shift sentiment. It's a tricky call, but I lean slightly against a strong breach, more towards a test and maybe a bounce or consolidation around 33.00-33.10. What are others seeing in the charts or feeling about the macro backdrop for this pair?

Looking at $TCEHY's current trading around 59.31, with a high of 59.35 today, I'm putting the odds of it hitting 60 by month-end at around 65%. The stock seems to be consolidating after its recent move, and with the broader market sentiment holding up, a push past 60 feels like a natural resistance test rather than a speculative leap. It's a short hop from here, and the momentum, while not explosive, appears supportive enough for that final grind.

Given $EURGBP has already touched 0.85082 today, and the overall sentiment around the Euro seems to be softening a bit, I'd put the odds of it breaking below 0.8500 by Friday's close at around 40%. It feels like there's some underlying pressure, but not a full capitulation yet.

Looking at $AAVE's recent action, especially today's tepid rally (currently around 98.7, after hitting 99.04 earlier), I'm leaning towards a retracement back below the $95 mark by the end of May. My rough probability for this is around 60-65%.

The rationale is pretty straightforward: the overall crypto market still lacks conviction. We've seen these mini-rallies get bought up, but the follow-through is just not there. $AAVE had a decent run up from the low 80s, but that move felt more like a relief bounce than the start of a sustained uptrend. Without broader market momentum or significant protocol news, it's susceptible to profit-taking and a drift lower. The rangebound action between say, 95 and 105, seems more likely to break downwards if there isn't a catalyst to push it higher convincingly. There's not enough fresh capital coming in to hold these levels, and the macro picture isn't helping.

Considering the current $ZARUSD level holding around 0.06117, with limited daily movement so far, I'd put the probability of it breaching 0.06000 by month-end at roughly 65-70%. There's persistent pressure from global risk-off sentiment, which typically weighs on EM currencies, and while the recent local news flow hasn't been overtly negative, the broader economic outlook for South Africa remains challenging. Unless we see a significant shift in global risk appetite or unexpected positive domestic data, a grind lower seems more likely than a rally above current levels, but it certainly won't be a freefall given the existing support around 0.06050.

Hey everyone, been looking at the oil markets, specifically $BRENT. We're currently sitting around $76, and I'm curious about the collective sentiment on it hitting $80 by the end of the year. Historically, year-end often sees some volatility and potential upward pressure from winter demand, but the current macro picture is pretty nuanced.

On one hand, OPEC+ cuts continue to be a factor, and there are always geopolitical wildcards that can quickly tighten supply. Demand from China also seems to be picking up, which could add a tailwind. On the other hand, the global economic outlook isn't exactly robust, and we've seen significant increases in non-OPEC supply, particularly from the US. If economic growth stutters further, that demand-side pressure might keep a lid on things. My rough, back-of-the-envelope assessment puts the probability of $BRENT touching $80 by December 31st at around 45%. It feels like there are almost as many headwinds as tailwinds right now. What are your thoughts on this? Am I underestimating any specific factors?

Watching $CADJPY closely. It's been range-bound for a bit, but the recent push suggests a re-test of the 114.60-115.00 zone by month-end is more likely than not. We're currently around 114.22. There's a decent confluence of resistance in that band, stemming from prior swing highs and a longer-term channel top. My internal probability for hitting 114.60 before the end of the month is around 65%, with a slightly lower 55% for reaching 115.00. The reasoning leans on the underlying strength in commodity currencies and the softening rhetoric out of the BoJ, even if subtle. A clear break above 115.00 would obviously invalidate this near-term range expectation, but I'm not putting high odds on that in the immediate future.

Considering the current range for $ZARUSD and some of the underlying economic pressures, I'd assign a roughly 40% probability of seeing a move to 0.062 or higher before the close of the month. We've been in a tighter consolidation phase, but any significant shift in commodity prices or local policy sentiment could easily trigger an upside breakout. It's not a strong conviction play, but the risk/reward for such a move seems balanced enough to warrant consideration.

The downside scenario, pushing closer to 0.060, probably carries a slightly higher probability at around 45-50%, given the recent momentum and global risk-off sentiment that tends to weigh on emerging market currencies. The remaining percentage is for staying within the current tight range. These are rough estimates, of course, and subject to rapid change based on incoming data.

Been watching $SLV pretty closely lately. It's sitting at 53.95 right now, bouncing around a bit, but there's some underlying strength there, or at least a lack of significant downward pressure. Considering the broader market sentiment and a bit of a flight to safety we've seen in precious metals, I'm leaning towards a decent probability it pushes through $55 before month-end. I'd put the odds around 60-65%. It's not a huge jump, and with the daily range we've seen (53.235–54.29), it feels attainable. The key will be if any major economic data releases give it an extra push.

Watching $CADJPY hover around 114.22, it feels like it's making up its mind. I'd give it a 60% chance of closing above 114.50 by Friday, assuming no major external shock, because it's been testing that upper range of late without fully committing. The daily range from 113.982 to 114.633 suggests plenty of indecision, but the slight negative on the day might be a deceptive dip.

Looking at $USDTHB, currently around 33.29, I'm leaning towards a push above 33.5 before October is out. My rough odds are about 65%. The energy situation in Europe and the general risk-off sentiment globally isn't helping EM currencies, and while Thailand's domestic situation is improving, the external pressures are significant. We've seen it test 33.39 recently, and with any minor hawkish tilt from the Fed or sustained dollar strength, it's not a big jump to clear that level and start looking for more resistance.

Considering the recent price action and the wider risk-on sentiment that seems to be holding, I'd put the probability of $ZARUSD pushing through 0.062 before the end of the month at around 60%. We've seen it test the upper bounds of its recent range today, hitting 0.06151045, and the momentum suggests there's still some steam left. However, any unexpected global risk-off events could quickly dampen that outlook, so it's not a conviction call.