Odds on Brent reaching $80 by year-end amidst shifting supply dynamics?

Hey everyone, been looking at the oil markets, specifically $BRENT. We're currently sitting around $76, and I'm curious about the collective sentiment on it hitting $80 by the end of the year. Historically, year-end often sees some volatility and potential upward pressure from winter demand, but the current macro picture is pretty nuanced.

On one hand, OPEC+ cuts continue to be a factor, and there are always geopolitical wildcards that can quickly tighten supply. Demand from China also seems to be picking up, which could add a tailwind. On the other hand, the global economic outlook isn't exactly robust, and we've seen significant increases in non-OPEC supply, particularly from the US. If economic growth stutters further, that demand-side pressure might keep a lid on things. My rough, back-of-the-envelope assessment puts the probability of $BRENT touching $80 by December 31st at around 45%. It feels like there are almost as many headwinds as tailwinds right now. What are your thoughts on this? Am I underestimating any specific factors?