WTI's path to $85 by year-end: looking at current catalysts

Been watching crude ($WTI) lately and it feels like we're at a bit of a crossroads. The recent OPEC+ cuts, especially from Saudi Arabia, are obviously a major bullish input. They're playing hardball and it's impacting supply. On the flip side, global demand concerns, particularly out of China and a general economic slowdown in the West, are keeping a lid on things. We also see continued SPR releases from the US, which dampens the immediate supply squeeze.

My take is that the supply side is going to exert more pressure over the next few months. We've got a tightening physical market despite the demand worries. If we get even a hint of demand resilience, or further geopolitical tensions that impact supply lines, the price could run. I'd put the odds of WTI hitting or exceeding $85 by year-end at around 60%. Below that, the $ROSE coin is sitting at 11.66, suggesting other markets are also feeling the pinch of uncertainty.