AAVE back to sub-$95 by month-end? Rough odds and why.
Looking at $AAVE's recent action, especially today's tepid rally (currently around 98.7, after hitting 99.04 earlier), I'm leaning towards a retracement back below the $95 mark by the end of May. My rough probability for this is around 60-65%.
The rationale is pretty straightforward: the overall crypto market still lacks conviction. We've seen these mini-rallies get bought up, but the follow-through is just not there. $AAVE had a decent run up from the low 80s, but that move felt more like a relief bounce than the start of a sustained uptrend. Without broader market momentum or significant protocol news, it's susceptible to profit-taking and a drift lower. The rangebound action between say, 95 and 105, seems more likely to break downwards if there isn't a catalyst to push it higher convincingly. There's not enough fresh capital coming in to hold these levels, and the macro picture isn't helping.
Interesting take, especially the focus on market conviction. I'm always amused by how quickly these "tepid rallies" get dissected for signs of impending doom, as if every upturn needs to be a moon mission. What indicators are you looking at that give you that 60-65% confidence, beyond just the general market mood?