Predicting $AVAX monthly range for October - a probabilistic view

Hey everyone, been looking at $AVAX and its recent action. Currently sitting around $6.34, with a daily low of $5.99 today. The whole crypto market feels a bit wobbly, but $AVAX has some interesting technical levels.

I'm looking to predict if $AVAX will trade below $5.50 at any point during October. My rough odds are about 60% for it to dip below that level. My reasoning comes from a few places: firstly, the general market sentiment in crypto isn't exactly bullish, and a lot of alts tend to get dragged down disproportionately during broader downturns. Secondly, if we see another retest of the lower bound of its current range, a break below $5.99 could easily accelerate toward $5.50. There's not a lot of strong support visible on longer timeframes until we hit that area, which makes it a magnet if selling pressure picks up. On the flip side, I'd put about a 40% chance it holds above $5.50, especially if $BTC finds its footing or we get some unexpected positive news out of the Avalanche ecosystem. What are your thoughts? Any strong arguments for it holding firm, or even pushing higher this month?