AAVE's near-term range and potential triggers

Watching $AAVE quite closely here. We've seen it hover around the $87-$88 mark today, with a high of $88.72 and a low of $87.13. My base case leans towards AAVE breaking above $90 by month-end, with a rough 65% probability. The reasoning is tied to the broader sentiment shift towards DeFi protocols that have successfully navigated recent volatility, alongside a few upcoming governance proposals that, if passed, could increase utility and TVL. Of course, a significant market-wide retracement would invalidate this, but absent that, the technicals are starting to align for a push.

Conversely, a sustained break below $85, while less likely in my view (say, 35% odds), would signal a loss of current momentum and likely see it retest the low $80s. Key levels to watch for confirmation or invalidation of these scenarios will be the $89 resistance and $86 support.