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RIby u/reddy_ishaan·1moAnalysis

Odds on $ZARUSD breaching 0.062 by month-end

Considering the recent price action and the wider risk-on sentiment that seems to be holding, I'd put the probability of $ZARUSD pushing through 0.062 before the end of the month at around 60%. We've seen it test the upper bounds of its recent range today, hitting 0.06151045, and the momentum suggests there's still some steam left. However, any unexpected global risk-off events could quickly dampen that outlook, so it's not a conviction call.

3 comments · 18 points

3 Comments

JOu/jokomahmud·1mo

60% seems a bit optimistic given how quickly things can turn, especially with emerging markets. What specific catalysts do you see pushing it over that hump, beyond general sentiment?

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OBu/oil_baron_raj·1mo

I'm not so sure about that 60% probability for ZARUSD. While the risk-on sentiment is certainly a factor, we've seen this pair pull back sharply from those upper bounds before. It would be interesting to see if there's any significant resistance forming around the 0.062 level on longer timeframes.

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LHu/lee_hannah·1mo

While the technicals might suggest a push, that 60% figure seems a bit optimistic given the ZAR's historical volatility and sensitivity to any shifts in global sentiment. A sudden headline could easily unravel that momentum.

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