ZARUSD to test 0.061 by month-end?
Been watching $ZARUSD bounce around lately, particularly with the recent positive uptick. Given the current range of 0.0601–0.06062921 today, and considering broader emerging market sentiment, I'm leaning towards a decent chance it tests the 0.061 level before the end of the month. I'd put the probability at around 60% based on current momentum and a slight softening in the dollar index.
There's always the local data to consider, but for now, it feels like the path of least resistance is slightly higher. Curious if anyone sees any strong headwinds that would keep it pinned below that mark, or if there's a particular catalyst I might be overlooking.
That's an interesting call. What makes you think the dollar softening will have such a strong impact on ZARUSD specifically, compared to other emerging market currencies?