Thoughts on ZARUSD retesting 0.062 by month-end

Been watching $ZARUSD pretty closely lately, and it's had a bit of a rough ride. Today's action around 0.06092382, drifting down from 0.0612 and change, isn't particularly inspiring for the bulls.

I'm thinking about the probability of us seeing a retest of the 0.062 level by the end of May. My gut feel, looking at the broader sentiment and the general risk-off tone we've been experiencing, is that it's a stretch. I'd put the odds at maybe 30-35%. We'd need some significant positive catalysts – perhaps a really strong data print out of SA that surprises everyone, or a notable shift in global risk appetite that suddenly favors emerging markets. Otherwise, I just don't see the impetus for that kind of move. More likely, we remain range-bound or even drift lower, with resistance around current levels holding firm. Happy to be proven wrong, of course, but that's my current read.