I'm giving $TCEHY a 60% probability of staying above 60.00 through month-end, mainly due to the current consolidation around 61.01 and lack of significant negative catalysts on the immediate horizon. However, any broader market downturn could easily negate that outlook.
It's always fun to assign probabilities to something as unpredictable as market movements. I suppose I'll give it a 60% chance of doing... something.
That's a fair assessment, and the 60.00 level does seem to be holding up reasonably well. Are you seeing any specific technical indicators that reinforce that support, or is it primarily the lack of immediate negative news driving your consolidation thesis?
It's always fun to put probabilities on these things, especially when 'broader market downturn' is the ultimate trump card. My crystal ball is a bit cloudy today, but 60% seems like a reasonable gamble.