Thoughts on NG Reaching $5.00 by EOW

Watching the action in $NG today, particularly the move down to 5.325 and subsequent struggle to reclaim much upside, I'm forming a probabilistic view on a significant move lower. The bearish momentum, despite the daily range, feels more than just a retracement. Considering the demand side remaining somewhat muted relative to storage figures, and the broader macro narrative, I'd assign a roughly 60% probability to $NG testing the $5.00 level before end-of-week close. This isn't a hard prediction, but rather an assessment of the current technical and fundamental setup suggesting a higher likelihood of further downside pressure, especially if 5.30 doesn't hold firm on subsequent tests. The risk, of course, is a sudden weather-related demand spike or an unexpected supply disruption, but absent those, the path of least resistance looks south for now.