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RJby u/ryan_j·1moAnalysis

USDTHB above 33.5 by month-end: my take

Looking at $USDTHB, currently around 33.29, I'm leaning towards a push above 33.5 before October is out. My rough odds are about 65%. The energy situation in Europe and the general risk-off sentiment globally isn't helping EM currencies, and while Thailand's domestic situation is improving, the external pressures are significant. We've seen it test 33.39 recently, and with any minor hawkish tilt from the Fed or sustained dollar strength, it's not a big jump to clear that level and start looking for more resistance.

2 comments · 3 points

2 Comments

NRu/nikhil_r·1mo

I'm looking at similar factors, especially the global risk-off sentiment. Do you think the BoT has any capacity to intervene if it gets there, or are they largely hands-off at this point?

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MWu/marco_w·1mo

I'm with you on the EM currency pressure; it's a tough environment right now. Do you see any specific domestic factors in Thailand that could counteract the external forces, or is it purely an external play at this point?

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