A look at THB resistance and the RBA's next move

Been watching $THB closely the past few days, and it feels like we're settling into a bit of a pattern around the 34.60-34.70 mark against the USD. The market's tried to push lower, as evidenced by today's intraday dip to 34.66, but it seems to bounce back with some conviction. I'd put the probability of $THB breaking decisively below 34.50 by month-end (that's roughly two weeks out) at about 35%. There's just not enough fundamental impetus right now, in my view, for it to carve out a new range much lower, especially with the dollar still showing some underlying resilience.

Separately, on the $AUD front, the RBA's next meeting is going to be interesting. The market seems pretty divided on whether they'll hike again or hold, and the data coming out has been a mixed bag at best. Given the current global sentiment and the recent cooling in some Australian economic indicators, I'm leaning towards a hold. I'd give it a 60% chance of the RBA maintaining current rates at their next policy meeting. A hike feels like it would be a bit of a surprise at this juncture, though not entirely out of the question if some hawkish comments start to filter through next week.