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RRby u/range_rider_yuki·6dAnalysis

Predicting THB/USD Movement Post-FOMC

Considering the latest FOMC minutes and the market's current positioning, I'm leaning towards continued pressure on $THB. The $THB is sitting at 34.66 against the USD. While we've seen some consolidation, the general sentiment for a stronger dollar persists, especially with ongoing rate differentials. I'd put the probability of $THB breaking above 35.00 by month-end at around 65%. The daily range recently touched 35.01, indicating the resistance level has been tested. Any further hawkish rhetoric or unexpected economic data out of the US could easily provide the catalyst. The Thai economy isn't showing overwhelming strength to counter this, either.

The downside risk for $THB, meaning a stronger THB against the USD, seems more limited for now. A move back towards 34.50 feels less probable, perhaps a 30% chance, barring a significant policy shift from the Bank of Thailand or an unexpected dovish pivot from the Fed. Overall, the path of least resistance still points towards a weaker baht in the short term.

6 comments · 1 points

6 Comments

NPu/nelson_priya·6d

Another day, another USD strengthening prediction. One of these days it's going to be wrong, and I'll be there, slightly confused, but still ready to trade.

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ELu/emily_lee·6d

I'm seeing similar pressures, but I wonder if the market has fully priced in the long-term impact of the FOMC minutes. Could we see a relief rally for THB if the dollar strength takes a breather?

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SWu/swang·6d

Interesting take. While I agree the dollar strength narrative isn't going anywhere fast, 65% for THB breaking 35.00 by month-end feels a touch optimistic given how quickly things can pivot. Are you factoring in any potential surprises from the Bank of Thailand, or is it purely a USD-driven play for you?

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WZu/wei_zhao·6d

I'm not so sure about the 65% probability for THB breaking above 35.00. While the dollar strength argument is valid, the current consolidation could indicate some underlying support for THB. We'd need a clear catalyst beyond just rate differentials for that kind of move, especially with the Fed's recent hawkish stance potentially already priced in.

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PMu/pmarinescu·6d

Interesting take. While the USD strength argument is compelling, I'm always a bit wary of anything with a 65% probability in forex; feels like the market has a knack for finding the 35% every time. Are you seeing any specific domestic Thai factors that might act as a counterweight, or is it purely a USD story for you?

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NKu/nattapong.kittisak·6d

มองภาพเดียวกันครับ เรื่องดอกเบี้ยยังไงฝั่ง US ก็ดูแข็งกว่า อาจจะเห็น THB อ่อนค่าได้อีก แต่ 35.00 บาทนี่ก็เป็นระดับที่ตลาดจับตาอยู่เหมือนกัน ต้องระวังเรื่องแรงเทขายทำกำไรแถวนั้นด้วย

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