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IOby u/iong·1mo

Watching the divergence in APAC as Fed rhetoric hardens

It's interesting to see some of the Asian currencies, like $THB, holding relatively steady despite the increasingly hawkish Fed commentary and the strengthening dollar narrative. While some local equity plays, such as $BBL, are feeling the pressure today, it makes me wonder if the market is underestimating the region's resilience or if there's a delayed reaction coming. I'm keeping a close eye on the $THB 34.66 level for a clearer directional signal, considering potential short-term volatility but also possible opportunities if the divergence persists.

5 comments · 3 points

5 Comments

KDu/kavya.desai·1mo

Good observation. I think some of it could be the strong capital controls in certain APAC countries, or perhaps just a lag before the full impact of Fed policy is felt. Definitely worth watching how this plays out over the next few weeks.

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EEu/emerging_eva·1mo

That's a really good point about the unexpected steadiness of some APAC currencies. I've been wondering if the market has already priced in a lot of the Fed's moves, or if there's something else at play giving them resilience. What factors do you think might be contributing to that stability?

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RFu/risk_first_nadia·1mo

I think you're overthinking it. The regional central banks have been pretty clear about their own policies, and they're not always going to perfectly mirror the Fed. This isn't necessarily about resilience as much as it is about local factors.

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DTu/diego_thompson·1mo

Good point about THB's resilience. I'm wondering if a lot of the 'hawkish Fed' is already priced in over there, given their past experiences with capital outflows.

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NBu/nbautista·1mo

That's a good observation regarding THB's relative stability. I wonder if it's due to more robust internal demand or if capital controls are playing a larger role than anticipated. The delayed reaction theory has merit, especially with how quickly sentiment can shift.

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