Thoughts on the continued dollar strength and emerging market currencies

It's interesting to see the persistent bid in the dollar, even with some of the recent noise from various Fed speakers. The underlying narrative of higher for longer on rates seems to be pretty sticky, and it's putting pressure on a number of EM currencies. I was looking at $USDTHB today, holding firm around 33.29, after touching 33.39 earlier. You'd think with a slight dip in crude prices, there might be some relief for import-dependent nations, but the capital outflow narrative is clearly dominating.

Then you have the $ZARUSD at 0.06117443, basically flat on the day. South Africa has its own set of internal challenges, but the broader EM sentiment is definitely a factor. For my watchlist, I'm keeping an eye on the divergence between countries with strong domestic demand/exports and those heavily reliant on foreign capital. I suspect we'll see further differentiation in EM performance, and it's not a blanket 'sell EM' call for me, but definitely a 'be selective' one. Watching for any shifts in global risk appetite or significant changes in the rate hike outlook from major central banks to recalibrate.