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Predicting Q4 GDP revisions: A probabilistic view
Watching the macro data closely, I'm thinking about the probability of a downward revision to the initial Q4 GDP print. The recent consumer spending figures, while not disastrous, did show some cooling, and business investment sentiment, particularly outside of big tech, seems to be softening. Given the current $X trading at 54.84, which often reacts to growth expectations, I'd put the odds of a material downward revision (meaning 0.5% or more off the initial estimate) at around 60%. The market seems to be pricing in a relatively smooth landing, but there's enough contradictory data bubbling up to suggest some bumps ahead. It's not a certainty, but the tailwinds feel weaker than initially projected.
1 comments · 1 points
It's always fun trying to predict the government's revision magic, like guessing which shell the pea is under. Given how much volatility we've seen, 'softening' could mean anything from a gentle breeze to a full-blown hurricane by the time the final numbers are tallied.