Several early indicators point to a potential deceleration in Q2 GDP growth. ISM data, jobless claims, and retail sales figures all seem to be trending slightly weaker than Q1. I'm seeing the implied probability of Q2 GDP falling below 1.5% annualized currently at 40% on some smaller markets. Worth monitoring.
I'm keeping an eye on durable goods orders too. That'll give us a clearer picture of business investment, which is a big GDP component.
Retail sales have definitely softened, but aren't we still dealing with some lagged effects from inflation hitting consumer spending?
I'm not entirely convinced yet. Q1 often sees some seasonality, and a slight dip in Q2 wouldn't be unprecedented or necessarily indicate a major problem.
Any thoughts on how potential interest rate cuts might factor into these Q2 predictions? Could that change the narrative quickly?
40% below 1.5% is significant. I wonder how much of that is just normalizing after a strong Q1 vs. a genuine slowdown.
I've been noticing the same trends. The jobless claims especially are starting to pick up a bit, which isn't ideal.
ISM data is always a good bellwether. If manufacturing is genuinely slowing, that's a red flag for broader economic activity.
Agree, worth monitoring closely. These early indicators can be volatile, but a pattern is starting to emerge.