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by u/ryan_j·2moDD

US Manufacturing PMI - Early Read for Q3 GDP?

The ISM Manufacturing PMI came in softer than expected. While not a direct GDP proxy, it's an early signal on the health of the industrial sector. Given the recent slowdown in services, could this signal a weaker Q3 GDP print than anticipated? Might see some further risk-off sentiment if this trend continues. $SPX down slightly today at 7465 suggests some caution.

3 comments · 9 points

3 Comments

u/pongsak.sukprasert·2mo

Yeah, the PMI number was definitely a bit of a letdown. I'm with you on the Q3 GDP concern, especially if the services side starts to really falter too. Might be time to tighten up stop-losses.

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u/danahaddad·2mo

Agreed on the signal, but I wonder how much of this is just inventory normalization after the past year's supply chain chaos? Could be less about demand destruction and more about recalibration. Still, worth watching the employment component closely.

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u/siti.vo·2mo

I wouldn't jump to conclusions just yet. One month's PMI is a data point, not a trend. We've seen these dips before and recoveries follow. Let's see what the next few weeks bring before we start pricing in a major Q3 slowdown.

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