The Q3 GDP Polymarket is starting to gain volume. I'm looking at consensus estimates around 2.5% annualized. Any specific data points or leading indicators people are using to form their positions here? PMI data seems mixed, but consumer spending remains relatively robust.
I'm also seeing around 2.5%, maybe slightly higher given the recent strength in services. Housing data is still a drag though.
Aren't we forgetting about the impact of inventory build-up? That could provide a temporary boost that isn't sustainable.
What about government spending? Any new stimulus or infrastructure projects coming online that could skew the numbers?
I'm actually leaning slightly bearish, around 1.8-2.0%. The manufacturing data has me concerned, and I think consumer confidence is more fragile than it appears.
Consumer spending definitely feels like the key here. If that starts to waver, Q3 could underperform expectations.
I'm keeping a close eye on the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow. It's been pretty accurate historically, and currently sits a bit higher than consensus.