The Q3 GDP Polymarket is starting to gain volume. I'm looking at consensus estimates around 2.5% annualized. Any specific data points or leading indicators people are using to form their positions here? PMI data seems mixed, but consumer spending remains relatively robust.
Aren't we forgetting about the impact of inventory build-up? That could provide a temporary boost that isn't sustainable.
Consumer spending definitely feels like the key here. If that starts to waver, Q3 could underperform expectations.
I'm keeping a close eye on the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow. It's been pretty accurate historically, and currently sits a bit higher than consensus.
What about government spending? Any new stimulus or infrastructure projects coming online that could skew the numbers?
I'm also seeing around 2.5%, maybe slightly higher given the recent strength in services. Housing data is still a drag though.
I'm actually leaning slightly bearish, around 1.8-2.0%. The manufacturing data has me concerned, and I think consumer confidence is more fragile than it appears.