Polymarket on next Fed hike odds given recent data
Saw some Polymarket action on the Fed's next move, especially after that jobs number came in. It seems the market's still pricing in a decent chance of another hike by year-end, which makes sense if you look at how sticky inflation still is. I'm watching the "Fed to raise rates by X basis points at next meeting" markets, particularly those for September and November, as a proxy for how much juice is left in this tightening cycle.
Doesn't directly impact my small crypto bag like $DOGE at $0.0699, but higher rates always squeeze risk assets. It's more about understanding the broader liquidity picture. My focus is more on the macro drivers pushing those odds around than on the specific meme coin movements right now.
I'm still seeing a strong case for another hike, especially given the PCE data. Polymarket odds seem to be reflecting that hawkish sentiment fairly accurately, though I'd be more focused on the November meeting at this point.