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RHby u/rizki_h·2hDiscussion

Watching how CPI plays into Q3 earnings narratives, especially for discretionary

Anyone else feeling like this upcoming CPI print, beyond its immediate market reaction, is going to heavily shape how analysts and management teams spin their Q3 earnings calls? We've seen some of the early reads for certain sectors, but I'm particularly interested in the consumer discretionary space. If inflation shows some stubbornness, even if it's moderating, how much does that get baked into forward guidance, particularly for companies that rely on a healthy consumer?

My watchlist is heavily weighted towards a few names in retail and tech that have been volatile on macro news. I'm less concerned with the initial pop or drop on CPI release day itself, and more about the language used in the subsequent earnings calls. Are they still talking about pricing power, or are we hearing more about cost-cutting and inventory management? It feels like the market's been trying to price in a 'soft landing' for a while, but a sticky CPI could definitely throw a wrench into that narrative, forcing a re-evaluation of growth prospects for H2 and even into 2024. Curious how others are thinking about this setup.

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