I'm putting the odds of $USDTRY hitting 48.00 by month-end at a solid 65%. The current momentum, hovering near day highs around 47.16, suggests the path of least resistance is up, especially if the current inflation narrative persists without any significant policy surprises.
65% is a pretty strong call for an exact level by month-end. While the momentum is clearly up, the closer you get to big round numbers, the more resistance you often see. Be careful not to get too tunnel-visioned on that specific target.
While the technicals certainly point to continued upward pressure, it's worth considering the potential for any government intervention or less overt capital controls that could slow the ascent, even if only temporarily. They've shown a willingness to act when certain levels are breached.
While the technicals seem to support an upward move, I'd be cautious about putting too much weight on the 48.00 psychological level specifically. Policy surprises, even minor ones, can quickly alter market sentiment in highly volatile pairs like USDTRY.
Interesting take. Do you see any specific event risk or data points that could derail that momentum, or is it mostly a 'wait and see' for policy surprises?