USD/TRY - Watching for a move to 48.00 by month-end

Been keeping an eye on $USDTRY lately, and it feels like we're in a bit of a coil here. The market's been pushing higher, trading around 47.179 today, and the range is pretty contained between 47.0142 and 47.18214. What's interesting is the persistent bid, despite a lot of noise. It feels like the market is pricing in a continuation of the current policy stance, or at least a lack of significant intervention to stem the tide.

My take is there's a roughly 60-65% chance we see a push towards 48.00 before month-end. The momentum is still there, and any dips seem to be bought up pretty quickly. The risk, of course, is any unexpected policy shift or a sudden, strong statement that changes the narrative. But absent that, the path of least resistance still seems to be higher. Not financial advice, just my read on the charts and the general sentiment.