USDTRY and Potential Stability by Month-End

Considering the current $USDTRY levels around 46.8485, and recent daily ranges, the question of whether we see some stability or a continued push higher by month-end is on my mind. While the trend has been clear, the daily candles show some exhaustion. I'd put the probability of $USDTRY being above 47.50 by month-end at roughly 60%. This isn't a confident breakout call, but more of an acknowledgement of underlying pressures.

Conversely, the likelihood of a pullback below 46.00 seems lower, maybe 25%. The remaining 15% is for a range-bound scenario near current levels. The lack of any significant catalyst for a strong reversal keeps me leaning to the upside or sideways grind, even if the pace slows. It's a tricky read, but the path of least resistance still appears to favor depreciation for TRY.