Thoughts on USDTRY and the CBRT's path to month-end

Watching $USDTRY closely, currently hovering at 47.1632. Given the recent pattern of more controlled, but persistent, depreciation, my take is that we'll likely see USDTRY in the 47.50-47.80 range by month-end. I'd put those odds around 65-70%. The primary reasoning is the CBRT's demonstrated reluctance to aggressively intervene, coupled with underlying inflation pressures that continue to erode lira purchasing power. While they've shown they can slow the pace, a full reversal or even stabilization feels less likely without a significant shift in monetary policy or a major inflow of foreign capital, neither of which seems imminent in the next two weeks. We've seen periods of sideways movement, but the underlying trend has been fairly consistent over a longer timeframe.