USDTRY and the End-of-Month Lottery

Alright folks, casting my amateur prognostication hat into the ring regarding $USDTRY. Currently hovering around 47.1907, with a high today of 47.2029. We've seen some pretty aggressive moves here lately, largely tied to the internal machinations in Turkey, which let's be honest, often feel less like economics and more like a high-stakes game of political roulette.

My take for month-end, say by Friday's close, is that we're looking at a pretty decent probability of seeing USDTRY nudge past the 47.50 level. I'd put that probability at roughly 65%. Why? Well, for one, the current government's policy of 'unconventional' monetary theory tends to lead to one outcome for the currency, and it isn't strengthening. Add to that the typical month-end scramble for USD, combined with any number of unforeseen headlines that tend to drop right when markets are thinnest, and you have a recipe for continued depreciation. The upside, for those holding Lira, is that it can't fall forever... can it? It's less a forecast of economic fundamentals and more a prediction of human nature and political stubbornness. Just my two cents, not a call to action, obviously.