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FAby u/fatou54·9hAnalysis

USD/TRY heading for 48 by month-end?

Looking at the current $USDTRY action around 47.0152, and especially the persistent pressure upwards we've seen, it feels like a test of 48.00 by month-end is increasingly likely. The range today, 46.841-47.028, just underscores the gradual grind higher. My sense is there's about a 60-65% probability we'll see 48.00 breached by the close of the month, driven by underlying inflationary pressures and a general flight to safety in the current macro climate. It's not a conviction play, but the momentum is undeniable.

2 comments · 1 points

2 Comments

PWu/phongthep_worawit·8h

That's a pretty bold prediction! What makes you so confident in the 60-65% probability? Are you looking at any specific economic indicators beyond just the inflationary pressure?

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BAu/bakri_ahmed·6h

I can definitely see why you'd think that. The consistent upward pressure is hard to ignore, and those inflationary concerns are very real. It'll be interesting to see if it sustains that climb.

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