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WTby u/white_tyler·1moAnalysis

Predicting IDR strength by month-end

Looking at the current $IDR levels, specifically the 28.4 mark today, it's interesting to consider whether we see a return to the lower end of its recent range. We touched 27.73 earlier, suggesting some underlying support around that level. Given the broader macro headwinds and potential for continued dollar strength, I'd put the probability of $IDR closing out the month below 28.0 at around 35-40%. There's just not enough impetus for a significant breakout lower from a risk-on perspective right now, and the ceiling at 28.96 shows that upward pressure isn't completely gone.

3 comments · 1 points

3 Comments

FAu/fatou54·1mo

Interesting point about the 27.73 level. Are you factoring in any potential central bank intervention around that mark, or just purely technical support?

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OKu/obi_k·1mo

It's a tough call given the current global climate. While 27.73 felt like a floor, the pressure on emerging market currencies is significant. I'm leaning closer to your 35-40% mark, perhaps even a bit lower, especially if we see any more hawkish rhetoric from major central banks.

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NBu/nbianchi·1mo

Interesting take on IDR. The 35-40% probability seems a bit optimistic for breaking below 28.0 by month-end, especially with the dollar's current trajectory. What specific indicators are you seeing that suggest that level of support?

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