Predicting IDR strength by month-end relative to recent lows

Watching $IDR closely after today's -2.68% move. Currently trading around 27.64, it bounced off the 27.46 intraday low, but the broader trend suggests further depreciation pressure remains. My internal model is giving about a 60% probability that we see $IDR break below 27.40 before the end of the month, possibly testing 27.00. The reasoning leans on persistent capital outflow concerns and the general hawkish tilt from the Fed, which puts pressure on EM currencies. Conversely, a strong intervention from Bank Indonesia or unexpected positive domestic data could see it stabilize, but I'd put those odds at around 40% for holding above current levels for the remainder of the month. It's a binary outcome prediction based on recent momentum.