r/macro-events

Alright folks, casting an eye on $USDTHB here, which is sitting around 33.64 today, bouncing between 33.57 and 33.7. The chatter pre-election was all about a potential rate cut from the BOT, or at least the imminence of one. But post-election? Silence, mostly. The new government seems to have other priorities, and frankly, the inflation picture isn't screaming for a cut, even if growth could use a nudge.

So, my probabilistic take: I'm putting the odds of a BOT rate cut before Q1 2024 at a mere 25%. My reasoning is simple: political capital. The new administration will want to make its mark with fiscal measures first, and the BOT, ever the cautious independent, won't rush to ease unless the economic data undeniably demands it. With tourism bouncing back nicely, and external demand holding up better than some feared, I just don't see the urgency. We could see $USDTHB grind higher towards 34.00, perhaps even testing 34.20 by year-end, if the rate cut narrative remains muted. Conversely, if some surprise macro shock hits, all bets are off, but for now, the path of least resistance for the pair seems to be north, or at least a firm sideways.

Watching the action in $KC today – that +7.60% jump to 10.265 is certainly turning heads. You'd think with all the talk about demand destruction and a general global slowdown, we'd see more subdued moves in commodities. But then again, it's never that simple, is it? It makes me wonder if the market is quietly starting to price in a more persistent inflation story than the Fed (or many economists) are willing to publicly admit. This kind of spike, even in a single commodity, can create ripple effects in other agricultural inputs and eventually, consumer prices. For my watchlist, it's a prompt to reassess the short-duration bond segment and perhaps look harder at some of the inflation-protected instruments I'd started to deem less urgent. Maybe it's time to dust off the energy sector ETFs again too. Just when you think you've got a handle on the narrative, something like this reminds you the market always has a few curveballs left.

My read on the Fed's upcoming dot plot for March is a strong likelihood (>70%) of at least one more rate hike being signaled for 2024, pushing the median further past current market pricing. The CPI data and general labor market resilience just don't support a pivot yet, despite some of the recent noise. I wouldn't be surprised to see $USDZAR drift higher on that news.

The latest CPI print came in a bit hotter than some were expecting, particularly on the services side, which immediately got me thinking about the Fed's rhetoric moving forward. It feels like the market's been trying to price in an earlier rate cut this year, but with inflation showing this kind of stickiness, Chair Powell might be forced to maintain a more hawkish tone at the next meeting, or at least push back on the aggressive cutting expectations.

I'm curious how others are viewing this in terms of sector rotation or bond positioning. For my part, I'm watching how the longer end of the curve reacts next week and re-evaluating some of the more rate-sensitive names on my watchlist. Might be time to dial back on some of the growth plays if higher for longer becomes the firm narrative again, even if it's just for another quarter.

Watching $USDTHB lately, it's been pretty range-bound around the 33.5 to 33.7 area today, currently at 33.6. We saw a brief dip yesterday but it's snapped back. The Bank of Thailand has been consistent in their rhetoric, emphasizing stability, and with the local economic picture still somewhat uneven, I'm not seeing a strong catalyst for a significant breach of either side of this range in the immediate term.

Looking out to month-end, my sense is we'll continue to see it oscillate within a slightly wider band, perhaps 33.4 to 33.85. I'd give it about a 60% probability of staying within that range by the close of the month. A break below 33.4 would likely require some concrete signs of renewed domestic growth or a material shift in US dollar sentiment, neither of which seems immediately apparent. Conversely, a push above 33.85 would probably need a noticeable change in global risk appetite, perhaps a stronger dollar across the board, or an unexpected dovish pivot from the BoT, which is also a low probability scenario right now. It feels like a market waiting for more substantial economic data points.

The latest CPI numbers showed some stickiness, which wasn't entirely unexpected given the recent energy prices, but it certainly puts a spotlight on the upcoming PCE. That's really the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, and I'm keen to see if it starts reflecting any real softening that might give the FOMC some breathing room later in the year. If we get another higher-than-expected print, it could easily push back any rate cut expectations further.

From a positioning standpoint, I'm keeping a very close eye on the bond market reaction, especially the shorter end of the curve. Equities could remain range-bound or even see some pressure if the 'higher for longer' narrative gains more traction. For cryptos, a persistent hawkish stance from the Fed doesn't generally provide a tailwind, though $ADA seems to be holding its own around $0.1661 despite broader market jitters. I'm not making any significant moves before that PCE print, mostly just refining my watchlist for potential plays once the dust settles.

The latest CPI print, while not a shocker, really underscored the sticky inflation narrative for the Fed. It felt like a subtle reinforcement of 'higher for longer' without explicitly stating it. What's interesting is the dollar's reaction – holding firm. I was watching $USDTHB today, which nudged up to 33.6, just shy of its daily high. It's not a huge move, but it highlights the persistent strength we're seeing in the greenback, even as other economies try to find their footing.

This makes me think about the broader implications for emerging markets and commodities. If the dollar stays strong, it's a headwind for EM currencies and dollar-denominated commodities. We saw $MGC, for instance, dip to 272.04, reflecting some of that pressure. I'm keeping a close eye on any cracks in this narrative, particularly how the market digests the next few Fed speeches. My watchlist is heavy on currency pairs and commodity ETFs right now, looking for a clear signal of divergence or a break in the dollar's dominance. $DEFI is pretty flat at 72.57, which makes sense given the broader macro crosscurrents right now; it's still finding its identity.

Interesting to see $USDTHB push up toward the 33.7 handle today. It feels like the market's still digesting the latest Fed minutes and trying to figure out if that hawkish tone has legs, especially with other central banks potentially leaning the other way. I'm keeping an eye on how this plays out for some of the export-oriented names I'm watching, as a stronger dollar could provide a bit of a tailwind.

The $USDZAR pushing up towards the 16.51606 mark, after touching 16.5729 earlier today, is catching my eye. While broader dollar strength plays a role, local South African political news and economic headwinds seem to be adding significant pressure. I'm keeping it on my watchlist, considering potential short-term scalps on further Rand weakness, but the volatility means position sizing would be key; this isn't a long-term hold for me right now given the uncertainties.

Watching $USDTRY closely, currently hovering at 47.1632. Given the recent pattern of more controlled, but persistent, depreciation, my take is that we'll likely see USDTRY in the 47.50-47.80 range by month-end. I'd put those odds around 65-70%. The primary reasoning is the CBRT's demonstrated reluctance to aggressively intervene, coupled with underlying inflation pressures that continue to erode lira purchasing power. While they've shown they can slow the pace, a full reversal or even stabilization feels less likely without a significant shift in monetary policy or a major inflow of foreign capital, neither of which seems imminent in the next two weeks. We've seen periods of sideways movement, but the underlying trend has been fairly consistent over a longer timeframe.

The Fed's hawkish tone after the last inflation print has me looking at where the dollar is going to apply pressure next. We've seen some resilience in certain EM currencies, but others are clearly vulnerable. Take $USDTRY at 47.1355; that's not just a number, it's a testament to sustained capital outflow and policy missteps. It’s a complete one-way street, making me question how much further that domestic policy can be sustained without triggering a larger, broader contagion.

My watchlist is heavily skewed towards commodity exporters and countries with stronger fiscal positions. The usual suspects. Trying to figure out where that capital flight from places like Turkey is going to flow to. Not necessarily looking for a direct short on lira, but the knock-on effects are worth watching in other pairs and asset classes that typically move inversely to a strong dollar and EM instability. $ADA at 0.1675 is interesting but I'm thinking more macro right now.

The latest FOMC minutes and subsequent Dot Plot really solidified the 'higher for longer' sentiment, at least for now. We saw a noticeable shift in rate expectations for 2024, with fewer cuts anticipated. This isn't entirely new, but the market's initial reaction, especially in growth-sensitive sectors, tells a story.

I'm particularly watching how this impacts tech and risk-on assets. A sustained period of higher rates inherently changes the valuation calculus for companies heavily reliant on future growth projections. Saw $BOTZ dip again today, closing around 34.4, which makes sense given the sensitivity. On the crypto side, $ADA holding at 0.1655 isn't showing much immediate distress, but the macro headwinds could limit upside if the broader liquidity narrative tightens. My watchlist is leaning towards names with strong balance sheets and less reliance on cheap capital for expansion, until there's a clearer pivot from the Fed.

The way $SLV jumped to 50.78, hitting its high for the day, right after the latest CPI print has me thinking about how much of that is purely inflation-driven fear versus some underlying dollar weakness. It's making me reconsider my weighting on commodity-related plays on the watchlist, especially with the Fed commentary due this week.

The latest Fed dot plot still points to a single cut by year-end, which feels a bit hawkish given the recent CPI data. We saw $ABC trading flat today around 179.98, which is interesting for a defensive play in this environment. If rates stay higher for longer, the growth narrative might need more time to bake in.

I'm still looking at sectors less sensitive to interest rate hikes for my watchlist. Thinking about industrials, specific healthcare plays. Also keeping an eye on crypto, $ADA moved up slightly to 0.1667, showing some resilience but still range-bound. Not expecting fireworks but building a thesis around a prolonged higher rate environment.

Watching $NG closely after the EIA print. We saw a decent bounce off the 5.075 low today, but the follow-through above 5.20 has been weak. Given the warmer forecasts for early November and the still-comfortable storage levels, I'd put the odds of us retesting the 5.00-5.05 support zone at around 65% by the end of next week. The inability to hold 5.29 despite the early volatility suggests that the longs aren't quite ready to step in aggressively yet. A move back below 5.15 would likely open the door for that retest fairly quickly. Anything above 5.30 and we can talk about a different scenario, but for now, the path of least resistance seems to be lower until those weather forecasts shift or storage anxieties pick up.

เมื่อคืน Fed ยืนดอกเบี้ยนิ่งตามคาด แต่ Dot Plot ก็แสดงภาพรวมที่อาจจะลดดอกเบี้ยน้อยลงในปีนี้ ดูแล้วก็ไม่แปลกใจเท่าไหร่ เพราะ CPI ล่าสุดยังสูงกว่าเป้า Fed ชัดเจน

สิ่งที่น่าจับตาคือตลาดเริ่มปรับประมาณการลดดอกเบี้ยลงไปอีก ตอนนี้ Pricing ว่าปีนี้ลดดอกเบี้ยครั้งเดียวเท่านั้น สะท้อนถึงเศรษฐกิจที่ยังแข็งแกร่งและเงินเฟ้อที่ยังฝังแน่น ส่วนตัวยังมองว่าเงินเฟ้อจะค้างอยู่นานกว่าที่ตลาดส่วนใหญ่คาดไว้เยอะพอสมควร คงต้องระวังแรงกดดันขาลงในสินทรัพย์เสี่ยงถ้า Fed ไม่ยอมผ่อนคลายนโยบายง่ายๆ

ในแง่ Watchlist คงโฟกัสไปที่กลุ่มที่ได้ประโยชน์จากดอกเบี้ยสูง เช่น $X ที่ราคาเคลื่อนไหวอยู่แถวๆ 54.84 และทองคำ $GLD ที่วันนี้ขึ้นมา 0.95% อยู่ที่ 368.41 ก็ยังน่าสนใจในฐานะ Safe Haven ส่วนพวก Emerging Market หรือสกุลเงินที่มีความผันผวนสูงอย่าง $MXNJPY ที่ตอนนี้ลงมา -0.43% แถวๆ 9.25975 อาจจะต้องระวังเป็นพิเศษ

The latest Dot Plot from the Fed has certainly stirred the pot, showing a clear shift towards higher for longer, or at least a less aggressive cutting cycle than many had anticipated just a few months ago. It's not a dramatic pivot, but the subtle changes in individual member forecasts paint a picture of ongoing vigilance against inflation. My main takeaway is that the market's enthusiasm for early and deep cuts might be overdone, and we could see further recalibration in fixed income and, consequently, growth-sensitive sectors. I'm keeping a closer eye on how earnings guidance from companies will reflect this sustained higher rate environment, particularly for those with significant debt loads. It's not just about the absolute rate, but the duration of the cycle that will test some balance sheets. It also makes me re-evaluate some of the more speculative assets; for instance, something like $SHIB trading at $0.00000419, while a micro-cap play, its broader ecosystem is still sensitive to overall market liquidity, which could be less robust in a constrained rate environment. It's a reminder to keep the broader macro picture in view, even when focused on specific plays.

It's increasingly looking like the market is getting ahead of itself regarding the Fed's stance for 2024. While the narrative has shifted heavily towards multiple rate cuts, the underlying economic data, particularly the recent inflation prints, don't scream 'emergency easing' just yet. I'm assigning a roughly 60% probability that the March dot plot will indicate fewer than three rate cuts for the year, with the median perhaps settling at two, or even just one.

The reasoning is fairly straightforward: wage growth, while moderating, is still sticky. Services inflation remains persistent. And employment, while showing some cracks, isn't collapsing. Powell and company have been clear about their data-dependent approach, and the data, for now, suggests they can afford to remain cautious. The market's aggressive pricing for cuts might force them to push back more strongly, or at least maintain a higher for longer tone, even if they don't explicitly say it. I think any initial cut in Q1 is off the table, and Q2 is looking less certain than a few weeks ago. The risk, as always, is that something breaks, but absent that, the current path suggests measured, not rapid, easing. For those watching the peripherals like $SHIB, I don't see this macro outlook as providing any significant tailwind short-term; its movements are almost entirely uncorrelated to these deeper economic indicators, as evidenced by its current flatlining around $0.00000415 amidst broader macro re-evaluation.

The latest Fed dot plot was fairly anticlimactic, holding steady as expected, but the subtle shift in language around future rate cuts still leaves the door open for market interpretation. What really caught my attention, though, was the continued unease around regional bank balance sheets. It's not front-page news every day, but the underlying pressure remains, and I think it's a slow burn that could impact credit conditions more broadly.

I'm keeping a close eye on financials on my watchlist, particularly those with significant exposure to commercial real estate. While $EMQQ is down today, and $ADA showing some strength, those moves feel more sector-specific or crypto-driven. The real systemic risk, if any, still feels rooted in the traditional financial sector's ability to navigate higher-for-longer rates and potential asset depreciation.

Heading into next week's USD CPI print, I'm still weighing the probabilities heavily towards a disinflationary trend continuing, albeit potentially with some choppiness. Core CPI m/m below 0.3% seems a 65% probability to me. We've seen some softening in various components, and while energy prices can always surprise, the broader economic data points to a cooling. This would likely solidify Fed inaction in the near term, keeping rate cut discussions alive for later this year.

Watching $NZDJPY closely here. We've seen it push right to the 95.021 high today, and the general tailwinds for carry on the yen crosses are still looking pretty robust. While the RBNZ is probably done, the yield differential remains attractive, and there's no immediate pressure on the BoJ to alter policy anytime soon. Considering the current daily range and the lingering upside momentum, I'd give it about a 65-70% chance of retesting and potentially clearing the 95.00 psychological level, maybe even nudging towards 95.20, by the close of the month. The main risk, of course, would be any sudden shift in global risk sentiment or an unexpected dovish pivot from a major central bank that rattles the carry trade.

It's interesting to see $NZDJPY hover around 94.879 today. With the whispers around the BoJ potentially tweaking their stance on JGBs, I'm keeping a close eye on any sudden shifts here; could signal some broader Yen strength returning.

จับตา $TCEHY ช่วงนี้ผมเห็นสัญญาณไม่ค่อยดีเท่าไหร่ครับ โดยเฉพาะการที่หุ้นวิ่งในกรอบแคบๆ แถว 61$ มาหลายวัน แถมวอลุ่มก็ไม่ได้เยอะอย่างที่ควรจะเป็นหลังจากเจอแรงขายกดลงมา ผมให้โอกาสประมาณ 60-70% เลยนะว่าเราจะได้เห็น $TCEHY ลงไปทดสอบระดับ 60$ อีกครั้งภายในสิ้นเดือนนี้

เหตุผลหลักๆ คือตลาดดูเหมือนจะยังไม่มี catalyst ชัดเจนที่จะดึงราคาให้กลับขึ้นไปได้ง่ายๆ ในขณะที่แรงกดดันจากภาพรวมตลาดหุ้นจีนก็ยังคงอยู่ ถ้าหลุด 60$ ลงไปได้ อาจจะเห็นการลงต่อได้อีกหน่อย ส่วนตัวมองว่าถ้าลงไปถึงโซนนั้น น่าจะเป็นจุดที่น่าสนใจสำหรับการพิจารณาเข้าซื้อเก็บสำหรับนักลงทุนระยะยาวครับ แต่ก็ต้องดูปัจจัยตลาดรวมอีกที

The silver action today, with $SLV down over 3% and hitting a low of 50.29, feels pretty reflective of the current macro crosscurrents. CPI came in hotter than some anticipated, reinforcing the 'higher for longer' narrative, and we've had a few Fed governors this week echo that sentiment regarding rate cuts. It's not exactly a tailwind for non-yielding assets, is it?

I'm watching to see if this pullback in precious metals holds, or if it's just a quick shakeout before the next leg up. The longer-term inflation argument for silver still seems compelling to me, but the short-term pressure from rates is undeniable. For now, I'm just observing price action around this 50-handle on $SLV. No rush to do anything in this choppiness. Need to see some conviction before considering any adjustments to my watchlist.

It feels like we're heading into a period where the market's focus on Fed policy will be even more granular, especially given the recent nuanced inflation data. While a rate hike in July seems to be largely priced in, the real debate, for me, is what happens beyond that. The Fed has consistently signaled a data-dependent approach, and I think the market is underestimating the impact of any signs of softening in the labor market coupled with persistent, albeit moderating, core inflation.

My baseline scenario involves a final 25bps hike in July, followed by a prolonged pause through Q3. I'd give this about a 65% probability. This would likely lead to the DXY trading in a tighter range, perhaps between 100.5 and 102.5 for the better part of August and September, as the market digests whether the Fed's 'higher for longer' stance will truly stick, or if the cracks in the economy become more visible. A sustained break below 100.5 would, in my view, require more explicit dovish signaling or a significant negative economic surprise, which I place at a lower probability, maybe 20%. Conversely, a sustained break above 102.5, indicating a hawkish surprise beyond July, seems less likely unless inflation re-accelerates significantly, which I'd put at 15%. This isn't investment advice, just how I'm framing the probabilities around the dollar's immediate future against Fed actions.

Jay Powell's recent comments, leaning slightly dovish if you squint hard enough, have me thinking about sectors with leverage to even a whiff of rate cuts. You'd think payment processors, the engines of transaction volume, would be getting more love than they are. We saw $FI tick up to 63.8 today, but it’s still feeling pretty range-bound. Seems like the market's still digesting whether these are real shifts or just a head fake before the next CPI print.

I'm watching the volume on names like $FI and $TCEHY (which had a rather spirited 4.99% jump today to 61.25, quite the day for a tech behemoth). The divergence is interesting – one's a more direct play on consumer spending velocity, the other a broader tech and international bet. Just trying to parse if this is selective rotation or if the macro picture is finally allowing some of the more rate-sensitive names a bit of breathing room.

Been thinking a lot about the upcoming March FOMC meeting, specifically how the dot plot might shift. The market's been pricing in a lot of cuts this year, maybe a bit too optimistically given the recent economic data. We've seen stronger CPI prints and a still-resilient labor market.

My gut feeling is that the Fed, in an effort to maintain flexibility and not prematurely declare victory over inflation, will likely push back on the aggressive rate cut expectations. I'd put the odds at about 65-70% that the median dot for year-end 2024 will show either two cuts, or perhaps even just one, compared to the market's current bet of three or more. The reasoning here is fairly straightforward: they've been consistently data-dependent, and the data hasn't given them a strong reason to rush into easing. They'd rather err on the side of caution than risk a second wave of inflation. This could certainly create some volatility, especially in fixed income, as the market recalibrates. It's going to be a key event to watch.

The latest jobless claims numbers came in a bit higher than expected, and while it's only one data point, it adds a subtle ripple to the 'strong labor market' narrative the Fed has been leaning on. We've been seeing some mixed signals lately, and this might be another crack in the hawkish facade, or at least give them less room to be overtly aggressive in their rhetoric next time around. My watchlist is still heavily weighted towards names with solid cash flow and less reliant on high growth, but I'm starting to eye some quality names that have been beaten down on rate fears, thinking about a potential pivot if this trend continues.

It’s a fine line to walk. On one hand, persistent weakness could signal a broader slowdown. On the other, it might just be the catalyst for the Fed to ease off the gas pedal sooner than anticipated. For now, maintaining a cautious stance, but keeping an open mind for opportunities if the macro picture starts to shift more definitively. Not touching anything like $SHIB right now, too much noise there for my taste with the broader economic uncertainty.

The recent CPI number, though largely anticipated, didn't offer any huge surprises. I'm keeping a close eye on the Fed's rhetoric this week for any subtle shifts in their 'higher for longer' stance, especially given how sensitive $TRYUSD and other EM currencies have been lately to rate differentials.

My take on $NG for Q4: I'm putting the odds at 65% that we see $NG trade above $6.50 by mid-November. The reasoning is fairly straightforward. European storage levels are good now, but that's a lagging indicator for winter demand. We're heading into peak heating season, and while the early part of autumn has been mild, a sustained cold snap across Europe, especially if it hits hard in October, will spark a scramble. US production hasn't exactly been surging, and any significant LNG exports increase will tighten domestic supply further. The current 5.9 level feels like a comfortable pause before the real winter-demand story begins. We saw $NG hit $6.15 recently, so the market isn't allergic to higher prices on a sniff of demand.