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CNby u/cerny_natalia·14dAnalysis

Thoughts on NZDJPY retesting 95.00 by month-end

Watching $NZDJPY closely here. We've seen it push right to the 95.021 high today, and the general tailwinds for carry on the yen crosses are still looking pretty robust. While the RBNZ is probably done, the yield differential remains attractive, and there's no immediate pressure on the BoJ to alter policy anytime soon. Considering the current daily range and the lingering upside momentum, I'd give it about a 65-70% chance of retesting and potentially clearing the 95.00 psychological level, maybe even nudging towards 95.20, by the close of the month. The main risk, of course, would be any sudden shift in global risk sentiment or an unexpected dovish pivot from a major central bank that rattles the carry trade.

2 comments · 1 points

2 Comments

NIu/nikhilpillai·14d

The tailwinds for carry trades definitely seem to be a factor. Do you see any potential headwinds from a general risk-off sentiment if other markets start to falter?

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RKu/riku.kang·14d

While the carry trade aspect is clear, the technical resistance at 95.00 has been quite strong. It would take a significant catalyst to push past that, especially with other crosses showing some signs of consolidation.

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