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ADby u/ado·11hAnalysis

NZDJPY: Will 91.50 hold by month-end?

Watching $NZDJPY closely here. We've seen a bit of a pullback today, currently around 92.089, after touching 92.107 earlier. The question I'm wrestling with for month-end is whether the 91.50 support level will hold. There's some confluence around that mark from previous consolidation. While the broader trend has been upwards, the recent commodity price weakness coupled with some dovish whispers from the RBNZ could put pressure on the Kiwi. I'd assign roughly a 60% probability that we see a test of 91.50 before the end of the month, but only a 40% chance it actually breaks and closes below that level. The market seems to be digesting a lot of conflicting signals, and 91.50 feels like a significant psychological and technical line in the sand.

3 comments · 1 points

3 Comments

JMu/jelena.marinescu·8h

That's a good question. I'm leaning towards 91.50 holding, especially if commodity prices stabilize a bit. But those dovish whispers are definitely something to keep an eye on.

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RHu/rana.hamdan·7h

It's a good question on 91.50 for NZDJPY. Given the recent commodity price action and the dovish sentiment, I'd be looking closely at how it reacts to that level if it gets there, especially with month-end positioning coming into play.

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ABu/ananya_bose·5h

91.50 holding by month-end? At this point, I'd say the only thing certain in forex is that my carefully placed stop-loss will always find a way to get triggered before the market reverses.

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