Aussie-Kiwi: Probability of retesting 1.2110 by week's end

Been watching $AUDNZD closely today, currently hovering around 1.21448. We saw a nice dip earlier down to 1.21126, which felt like a healthy pullback after the recent run. The question now, looking at the daily charts and the underlying momentum, is whether we're likely to retrace that low, or even push slightly below it, before the close of the trading week.

My take, based on the current market structure and some of the broader crosscurrents, is that there's a good 60-65% chance we see a retest of the 1.2110-1.2115 area. The recent move higher has been quite sustained, and while fundamentals for both AUD and NZD are a mixed bag, I sense a bit of 'fade the rally' sentiment brewing amongst some participants, especially if we don't get any strong directional catalysts. There's a decent support cluster around that 1.2110 mark from previous price action, so I wouldn't be surprised to see it tagged again, perhaps even slightly breached on a liquidity grab, before any potential bounce. It's a tricky one, but the odds seem to favor another dip rather than a straight shot up from here.