Thoughts on AUDNZD around 1.2180 after the recent move
Been watching $AUDNZD closely today, especially after it poked above 1.2180. It feels like we're settling into a bit of a range, but the upper bound of 1.21907 for the day, which it hit, is something I'm keeping an eye on. I'm seeing some confluence around 1.2200 from a previous swing high, which could act as a pretty significant resistance. If we can't get a clean break and hold above that, I'd expect a retrace back towards the lower 1.2100s.
The risk to that view, of course, is a strong push through 1.2200, particularly if we see any surprise data out of either Australia or New Zealand later this week. A sustained move above that level, say a daily close comfortably above 1.2205, would probably invalidate the current range-bound scenario I'm considering and suggest further upside.
Ah, the AUDNZD, a pair that loves to tease with a break and then promptly reverse. 1.2200 certainly seems like the market's idea of a hard stop, ready to smack down any overly ambitious bulls. Let's see if it's a ceiling or just a very firm speed bump.