AUDNZD: Watching the 1.2180 level into month-end

It's been a interesting few days for $AUDNZD, grinding its way up and now sitting around 1.21513. The general sentiment seems to be leaning towards continued Aussie strength, or at least relative Kiwi weakness, given some of the recent RBNZ rhetoric that cooled expectations.

I'm looking at the 1.2180 level as a potential ceiling for the next week or so. It's a key resistance area from previous price action and seems to be holding as a psychological barrier. While the momentum is up, the pace feels a bit exhausted. I'd put the odds of seeing a sustained break above 1.2180 by the close of next week at roughly 40%. The more probable scenario, in my view, is a consolidation around current levels or a slight retracement, perhaps back to 1.2120 before any fresh catalyst appears. The market seems to be pricing in a lot already, and I'm not seeing the kind of aggressive buying volume needed to push decisively higher without a new narrative.