Watching NZDUSD at 0.56509 – confluence with 200 EMA on hourly

I'm keeping an eye on $NZDUSD today, particularly around the 0.56509 level. It's interesting because it's currently kissing the 200-period EMA on the hourly chart, which has served as a pretty solid resistance/support for the past couple of weeks. We've seen a few attempts to break higher, but they've generally been met with sellers.

My scenario here is pretty straightforward: if we can't find clear acceptance above 0.56532, which was today's high and a recent pivot, then the path of least resistance likely remains to the downside. A decisive break and close above 0.5660 would probably invalidate that short-term bearish outlook for me, suggesting a retest of prior highs.