Natural Gas Price Action Post-Inventory

Watching $NG closely after the EIA print. We saw a decent bounce off the 5.075 low today, but the follow-through above 5.20 has been weak. Given the warmer forecasts for early November and the still-comfortable storage levels, I'd put the odds of us retesting the 5.00-5.05 support zone at around 65% by the end of next week. The inability to hold 5.29 despite the early volatility suggests that the longs aren't quite ready to step in aggressively yet. A move back below 5.15 would likely open the door for that retest fairly quickly. Anything above 5.30 and we can talk about a different scenario, but for now, the path of least resistance seems to be lower until those weather forecasts shift or storage anxieties pick up.