r/macro-events

Been watching $GLD closely after that decent bounce. We're currently sitting around 372.15, and it poked its head above 376 earlier today. Given the ongoing inflation narrative and the slight softening in the dollar, I'm leaning towards a retest of the recent highs, specifically the 376.28 area, by month-end. I'd put the probability of that happening at roughly 65%. The key will be whether we see any major shifts in the upcoming CPI data or if the Fed rhetoric changes course dramatically, but for now, the path of least resistance seems to be upward momentum back to those levels.

Been watching the fed futures a bit too closely lately, and the odds for a 50 bps hike in March feel like they're a coin toss at best, even with some of the recent hawkish noise. CPI came in hot, sure, but the market's initial overreaction tends to level out. I'd put the probability of a 50 bps move at around 35-40% right now. My thinking is that while they're keen to tamp down inflation, a shock and awe 50 bps move might spook an already jittery market more than they intend, especially considering the current global backdrop. A more measured 25 bps still feels like the path of least resistance for them to maintain credibility without completely upending the apple cart.

They've got a tightrope to walk, managing inflation expectations without crashing the economy into a recession. The nuanced language we've been hearing suggests they want to keep all options open, but hitting the market with a larger hike could just shift the problem from inflation to growth concerns. It'll be a lively discussion, no doubt, but I'm leaning towards the doves having just enough sway to keep it at 25 bps. Either way, volatility looks set to remain a constant companion, so keep those stops tight.

Alright, folks, let's talk about the upcoming Fed meeting. I'm seeing a lot of chatter about a 50 bps hike in March, and honestly, I think it's a bit of a stretch. The market seems to be pricing in a good chunk of it, but I'm not convinced Powell wants to signal panic just yet. We've seen some hotter inflation numbers, sure, but the Fed's dual mandate includes employment, and while that's strong, a sudden aggressive move could spook things more than intended. My gut says they'll stick with 25 bps, keeping optionality open for subsequent meetings if inflation truly proves stubborn.

I'd put the odds of a 25 bps hike at around 65%, with a 30% chance of a 50 bps move, and a negligible 5% for anything else. The key will be the language around future hikes. If they go 25 and signal a strong bias for more, the market will adjust quickly. If they go 50, well, then we might see some interesting reactions in the short-term bond market and equity volatility. I'm keeping an eye on commodities like natural gas, which is sitting around $5.9, and what that signals for broader inflation. My money's on the more conservative approach for now; central bankers aren't known for their theatrical flair.

Watching $NFLX today, currently at 73.83, and pondering the likelihood of it retesting the 75.45 high from earlier today, or even pushing slightly above it before the week is out. The intraday resilience after the initial dip was interesting, suggesting some underlying demand at these levels. My gut says there's a good 60% chance we see that 75.45 again. If we get a decent market tailwind tomorrow, or even just some sector rotation back into growth, I think we could even poke above it. It's not a screaming setup, but the bounce off the lows felt pretty solid.

It seems the Fed has quietly started to soften its hawkish stance, which usually bodes well for emerging markets. However, the recent $IDR move, dropping 3.48% today with a low of 29.152, suggests there might be other underlying pressures that overshadow any Fed-induced optimism, making me wary of jumping into EM plays just yet.

Been watching the $CADJPY pair lately, and the recent divergence with natural gas prices is quite interesting, especially in the context of broader macro signals. We saw $NG pulling back today, currently at 5.84, down about 2.18%, after trading in a relatively tight range of 5.725-5.88. You'd typically expect a stronger correlation given Canada's energy export status, but CADJPY is actually showing a slight gain, up 0.02% at 114.846.

This makes me wonder if the market is pricing in a more resilient Bank of Canada stance, or perhaps the JPY weakness is simply overpowering the energy commodity influence for now. Could also be a sign of underlying demand for CAD irrespective of the day's NG move, perhaps tied to a more optimistic outlook on global growth than the energy sector is currently reflecting. Definitely keeping an eye on this for any further decoupling or recoupling – it's a good proxy for how different macro narratives are competing for dominance.

The ZARUSD pair has been an interesting one to watch, currently around 0.06072604 after a slight pullback today. It touched 0.06133765 earlier but couldn't hold. It feels like everyone's still trying to gauge the Fed's resolve. With all the talk of a 'higher for longer' narrative from various Fed speakers this week, it's hard to justify much conviction for sustained strength in EM currencies against the dollar just yet. My watchlist is still leaning towards dollar strength on any dips, especially if we get further hawkish commentary or resilient CPI figures next month. Seems premature to bet against the dollar's carry advantage when the market is still pricing in an eventual pivot that might be further out than some anticipate.

The CPI numbers yesterday, while not exactly shocking, still lean into that 'higher for longer' narrative, and it's interesting to see how certain assets are reacting. $SLV is down -3.32% today, sitting at 52.16, hovering near the lower end of its daily range. It's not a dramatic capitulation, but the continued pressure on metals suggests the market isn't anticipating any immediate dovish pivots from the Fed.

My focus next week will be less on the minor crypto moves like $SHIB (0.00000414 -2.11%) or even $AAVE (96.1 -0.96%) and more on how various sectors react to the expected hawkish Fed commentary. If rates are indeed staying elevated, the traditional flight-to-safety assets like silver might continue to struggle, or at least lack a strong catalyst for upside. Just something to keep an eye on for overall market sentiment.

I've been watching $SLV closely today, dropping to 51.78 at its low, now trading around 52.16. Given the broader market's hawkish interpretations of recent Fed rhetoric, I'm leaning towards continued pressure on precious metals. I'd put the odds at about 65% that we see $SLV close the month below 51.50, especially if we get any more strong labor data or CPI numbers that reinforce higher-for-longer rate narratives.

Considering the recent hawkish shift in Fed rhetoric, especially around inflation and rate expectations, I'd put the odds of $GLD staying above $370 by month-end at about 60%. The market seems to be pricing in a sustained higher-for-longer narrative, which typically weighs on gold, but geopolitical tensions and persistent inflation fears provide a floor, creating a bit of a tug-of-war for the metal in the near term.

The latest CPI numbers didn't move the needle as much as some expected for a definitive Fed pivot, and I'm curious how the dollar holds up here, especially against pairs where other central banks are showing slightly more hawkish undertones. For crypto, it makes me think about what $AAVE and other DeFi tokens will do, seeing as it's still down today.

Watching $NZDJPY today, currently at 93.21134, seeing some interesting divergence. NZD CPI came in softer than expected last night, yet the cross isn't collapsing. We dipped to 93.09 but found support. This suggests either a weak read was already priced in, or yen weakness is still the dominant force despite the dip. My watchlist is still leaning towards continued yen weakness on any further dovish BoJ hints.

ส่วนตัวค่อนข้างเซอร์ไพรส์กับ Dot Plot ล่าสุดของ Fed ที่ยังคงมีท่าที 'Higher for Longer' ชัดเจน ทั้งที่ตัวเลข CPI และแรงงานก็เริ่มเห็นสัญญาณผ่อนคลายลงบ้างแล้ว สำหรับทองคำ แม้ $BRENT จะยังอยู่ในโซน 76 เหรียญ แต่ความแข็งแกร่งของดอลลาร์จากมุมมองนี้อาจจะกดดันราคาได้ต่อเนื่องในระยะสั้น ทำให้ผมคงต้องระมัดระวังเป็นพิเศษและอาจจะมองหาจังหวะเก็บที่ต่ำลงกว่านี้อีกหน่อย หากดอลลาร์ยังคงแข็งค่าจากปัจจัยมหภาคเหล่านี้ครับ

Another CPI print comes in hot, and frankly, I'm starting to think the Fed's 'transitory' thesaurus got lost in the mail. It's getting tougher to ignore the stickiness, especially on the services side. This just reinforces my existing bias to keep a keen eye on the short end of the curve. I'm not expecting any sudden dovish pivots here; if anything, the market seems to be pricing in a bit more hawkish resolve.

Watching what this means for sectors that thrive on cheaper money is going to be crucial. $COMP is down today, continuing a trend that seems to react swiftly to any hint of higher rates. Still holding a few defensive positions and keeping powder dry, but the pressure is definitely building. This might just be the new normal for a while.

The consistent hawkish undertone from various Fed speakers this week is interesting, especially when you look at how the dollar index has been behaving. It's not a straight line up, which suggests the market is still digesting the 'higher for longer' mantra against the backdrop of potential economic slowdowns. I'm keeping a close eye on $SLV's muted reaction at 53.95; usually, this kind of macro sentiment would see a more pronounced move one way or another for precious metals. Not seeing that conviction yet.

The real test will be if this narrative starts to fully price into the longer end of the curve without a significant capitulation elsewhere. It affects everything, including some of the tech names like $BABA, currently at 112.33, where growth prospects are inherently sensitive to borrowing costs. For now, it's more about scenario planning than making any aggressive bets.

เห็น $NFLX ลงมา -2.78% วันนี้อยู่ที่ 73.37 นี่หลังจาก Fed ส่งสัญญาณขึ้นดอกเบี้ยอีกรอบชัดเจนเลยนะ หุ้นเทคฯ ตัวอื่นก็ไม่ต่างกันมาก ผมว่าตลาดกำลังปรับฐานรับข่าวนี้กันอยู่ ใครที่ถืออยู่คงต้องระวังกันหน่อย ยังไงก็ต้องจับตาดู CPI รอบหน้าอีกทีว่าจะออกมาเป็นยังไง อาจจะส่งผลกระทบมากกว่านี้ก็ได้ ถ้าตัวเลขไม่ดีขึ้นมา.

Odds are tilting towards the Fed signaling fewer cuts in the September dot plot, perhaps just two for 2024. If so, I'd assign a 65% probability $COMP revisits the 11.71 level by month-end, as rate-sensitive growth stocks would likely unwind recent gains.

The BoC meeting didn't surprise much, but the general market sentiment still feels like it's leaning towards sustained rate differentials against the JPY. With $MXNJPY currently up +0.24% at 9.25538, and seemingly wanting to push past the day's high of 9.26269, it makes me think about how much more room there is for carry trades to run, especially with the Fed still tight and other central banks not backing down easily. This makes me curious about how long the current setup can hold.

Watching the TRYUSD, currently at 0.02128593, it's clear the market is still very sensitive to any hints of continued tightening from central banks globally. While the focus has largely been on developed markets, the ripple effect on emerging market currencies can't be ignored. The recent rhetoric, even if nuanced, suggests a hawkish tilt remains in many places. This makes me cautious on positions sensitive to global liquidity shifts. Keeping a close eye on any upcoming CPI prints or central bank minutes for further clues. Not seeing a strong catalyst for a sustained rally in these riskier assets without a clear pivot.

Considering recent inflation stickiness and robust labor data, I'd put the odds of a 50bps hike in March at around 40%, with the Fed's dot plot likely shifting higher to reflect a more hawkish stance, potentially signaling three hikes in 2024 rather than the previously anticipated two.

Watching $MXNJPY closely here. The 9.195 level seems to be a significant technical support, tested multiple times today. Given current global risk appetite and carry trade dynamics, I'd put the odds of MXNJPY holding above 9.195 by month-end at around 60%. A break below would likely see accelerated selling towards 9.150.

It's interesting to see $BABA pop today, up over 11% right now sitting around 108.968. I'm trying to figure out if this is just a relief rally after some of the recent noise, or if there's a deeper sentiment shift happening for Chinese tech. Given the broader macro picture, with a lot of talk around potential rate cuts later in the year, you'd think growth-oriented tech would be getting more consistent love, but it's been such a mixed bag.

My watchlist is heavily geared towards identifying early signs of sector rotation, and honestly, tech has been a bit of a puzzle. While $ABC is barely moving, down slightly at 179.98, the volatility in names like BABA makes me wonder if money is just chasing momentum rather than making a fundamental bet. Are folks seeing concrete policy changes coming out of China that make this sustainable, or is this just short covering? I'm curious to hear how others are interpreting today's move and if it's changing your outlook on where capital might flow next in the tech space, especially with all the noise surrounding global growth.

Interesting to see $BABA up over 11% today, hitting 108.968, especially as we're still navigating a murky macro picture. While the sector has seen some renewed interest, this kind of move on a single name, even with a strong day, feels less about a wholesale shift in China sentiment and more about specific catalysts. Maybe short covering after the recent lows, or perhaps some larger institutional rebalancing. It doesn't fundamentally change my watchlist for the week, which is still heavily weighted towards how the upcoming CPI numbers will influence the Fed's stance. $TRYUSD continues to show relative stability, albeit with low volume, not really providing any directional macro cues. Keeping an eye on tech, but with a critical lens.

The slight uptick in $EURGBP to 0.85281 today feels like a whisper of the divergent paths the ECB and Fed might be taking. With recent strong US jobs data, the Fed could genuinely hold higher for longer, while the ECB seems poised to consider cuts sooner given the Eurozone's economic headwinds. This is definitely keeping $EURGBP on my watchlist, looking for further confirmation of central bank policy divergence to potentially build a longer-term directional view.

With South Africa's CPI figures due out next week, I'm looking at $ZARUSD. Currently around 0.0609787, there's a good chance we'll see a retest of the 0.0605 support zone if the print comes in hotter than expected, indicating persistent inflation pressures. Conversely, a softer number might offer the Rand some breathing room, potentially pushing it back towards 0.06155437, but I’d give that about 30% odds given the current global risk appetite. The market seems to be pricing in a hold from SARB, but persistent inflation could shift that narrative quickly.

Interesting to see $NZDJPY today, up 0.75% and hitting 92.807 at one point. It feels like the market is really starting to price in a more sustained hawkish stance from the RBNZ, especially as the BOJ continues to stick to its ultra-loose policy.

This divergence is becoming a pretty compelling narrative for me. I'm keeping a close eye on any further comments from either central bank, as it could really accelerate this trend. Definitely on my watchlist for potential plays, though I'm cautious about chasing the top without a clear entry setup.

Watching $GBP/USD closely into year-end. Odds are tilting towards a retest of 0.82 within the next 3 weeks, call it 65%. We saw the pair touch 0.82356 earlier today before pulling back to 0.81345. My reasoning is largely driven by mounting US election cycle uncertainty, which traditionally favors the dollar as a safe haven, but with UK policy divergence now becoming less stark, a weaker dollar against a recovering GBP might see that level again. A close above 0.817 would reinforce that view, otherwise, we could consolidate around current levels for longer.

The latest non-farm payrolls came in softer than expected, which you'd normally expect to see the dollar take a hit, but it's held up remarkably well against some crosses, especially the yen. We're still seeing that underlying inflation stickiness keeping the Fed on a tight leash, even if the employment picture is starting to soften. This makes me question the conventional wisdom of a rapid dollar decline. I'm keeping a close eye on $ZARJPY at 9.892, specifically for any sustained breaks below 9.853. On the equities side, I'm watching how sectors dependent on a weaker dollar are performing, particularly those with significant international revenue exposure, as the stronger dollar could present headwinds. It's not as clear-cut as some make it out to be. The market seems to be pricing in a 'higher for longer' Fed more aggressively than the jobs data might imply.

The subtle shift in ECB rhetoric, particularly Lagarde's recent comments, seems to be setting a different tone than the consistently dovish whispers coming from the BoE. It's making me reconsider my usual biases around $EURGBP, currently trading around 0.85434, and really focus on how central bank divergence might play out in the medium term. My watchlist has a few European industrials I'm looking at in case the euro gains some steam.

Watching the $NZDJPY move today, currently around 92.525, feels like a decent bellwether for how the market is digesting recent Japanese inflation data and the ongoing, albeit slow, shift in the BoJ's stance. While the rate differentials are still stark, there's a subtle narrative building that could see some further JPY strength if the BoJ signals clearer tightening in coming months. This dynamic is making me rethink some of my APAC-centric watchlist plays. On the flip side, $EMQQ, sitting at 32.44, hasn't seen the same immediate pressure from the macro shifts, suggesting perhaps a more localized tech story is at play, or a delayed reaction. It makes me wonder if there's an opportunity to re-evaluate exposure to regions more sensitive to JPY moves vs. those less so, especially with upcoming CPI prints from other major economies.