r/macro-events

I'm giving about a 60% chance we see $TRY trading above 19.00 against the dollar by month-end. While the current 18.6264 seems to be holding, inflation pressures and the upcoming holiday season could easily lead to a re-evaluation by the market, pushing it higher as volume thins out.

CPI numbers out of the US this week, while not a blowout, still keep the Fed in a tight spot, meaning higher-for-longer is still the base case. That's not great for those betting on a quick pivot. What I'm watching closely, though, is the reaction in the currency markets, specifically against the Yen. $ZARJPY at 9.957 is down a bit, but it feels like the USD strength keeps any significant JPY rally at bay, despite some chatter about intervention. I'm keeping a few JPY crosses on my watchlist for potential range plays, but definitely not looking for a big breakout in either direction for now given the current rate differential.

The latest Fed commentary, while still hawkish, seems to be softening its stance on future rate hikes. I'm keeping a close eye on the $DXY to see if this translates into any significant weakening, which could be interesting for carry trades like $TRYUSD, currently hovering around 0.02134804. A sustained downtrend in the dollar might also offer some reprieve for risk assets, although the general macro headwinds are still formidable.

Been watching the whispers around the ECB's hawkish tone lately, especially with some of the recent CPI data out of the Eurozone. It feels like the market is still pricing in a somewhat dovish lean for later this year, but I'm starting to wonder if that's a bit naive, given how sticky inflation seems to be. If they signal a more aggressive stance, even subtly, I think we could see some interesting moves across the board.

Specifically, I'm keeping a close eye on $EURUSD for potential strength, which could then put some pressure on export-heavy indices like the $GER40. We're seeing the GER40 trading around 25797.5 now, and while it's holding up, a sustained euro rally could cap its upside or even trigger a retracement from these levels. My watchlist is full of European industrials and luxury goods right now, and how they react to any significant shift in monetary policy out of Frankfurt will be key. It's not just about rate hikes anymore; it's about the forward guidance and the language they use.

The sustained move in USDTRY past 18.60 is interesting, especially with the global tightening narrative. While $TRY is holding relatively steady today, the higher yield environment in developed markets typically puts pressure on emerging market currencies. Keeping an eye on how it reacts to upcoming CPI prints; that could either reinforce or alleviate some of the current pressure. Not making any moves yet, but it's on my watchlist for potential volatility.

That bounce in $BRENT past $72 today is interesting. While it's only a small move in the grand scheme, it comes right as central banks are trying to gauge the stickiness of inflation. If we see $BRENT sustain above these levels, it's going to make their job harder and could certainly influence rate hike expectations, especially given the recent dovish whispers. I'm keeping a closer eye on energy sector stocks and anything sensitive to input costs on my watchlist.

I'd put the odds at 65% for a softer CPI print next week, keeping the Fed on track for a potential rate cut later this year; core inflation slowing seems to be the current trend, despite some recent energy price volatility.

Watching $BRLUSD today around 0.19324. Been seeing more chatter about potential interest rate hikes from BCB soon given inflation concerns, and it's making me wonder if this dip is just a knee-jerk or if we're seeing the start of a more sustained move. I'm curious if others are seeing similar signals out of other LatAm currencies too, or if this feels more isolated to Brazil's specific economic pressures. Thinking about how this might affect commodity exports if the currency strengthens further.

Been watching the chatter around $TCEHY and the potential delisting of its HK shares, especially with its recent dip to $55.35. While it's largely rumor mill stuff for now, it does make you re-evaluate the regulatory overhang on these China tech plays. It's a risk factor that needs to be priced in, not just dismissed.

On the other side of the coin, $BAC holding steady at $58.73, even with the recent rate uncertainty. Seems like the market's expecting higher for longer, which obviously bodes well for their net interest margin. Makes me wonder how much of that is already baked in and what an actual Fed pivot would do to that trade. Still, hard to argue with banks in a higher rate environment, provided the economy doesn't totally crater.

The BoJ's recent commentary, or lack thereof, on the yen's sustained weakness is becoming a focus. With $GBPJPY pushing 216.361 today, it makes you wonder how much further they'll let it slide before intervention becomes a serious consideration, especially with core inflation still elevated there.

It's interesting to see the oil market with $LCO at 26.4877 today, especially with all the Fed rate talk picking up again. You'd think higher rates would eventually cool demand, but it hasn't really translated into a major price collapse for crude yet. Definitely keeping an eye on how these macro signals eventually flow through to commodities, and what that might mean for the energy sector plays on my watchlist. Feels like there's a disconnect or a delayed reaction at play.

Bit of a whipsaw week, eh? CPI print came in mostly as expected, which seemed to dial back some of the more extreme hawkish Fed bets. Saw a decent bounce in some of the growth names, but it feels tentative. On my watchlist, still seeing a fair bit of divergence. $TCEHY sliding back to $55.35 is interesting after its brief push. It's not falling off a cliff, but the selling pressure suggests some aren't convinced about a sustained tech rebound yet. Same for $AIQ, down to $61.85, the intra-day swings are wild.

Conversely, the banks like $BAC holding strong at $58.73, despite the broader market jitters, suggests capital is rotating towards perceived stability or value. That daily range, $57.94–$59, shows it's finding buyers on dips. It makes me wonder if we're in for a sustained period where financial sector resilience is the play, while parts of tech might struggle for direction until we get more clarity on rates. Still keeping an eye on the macro picture, obviously, but the sector rotation is becoming more pronounced.

It's interesting to see $CL holding around the $68.78 mark today, given some of the ongoing global manufacturing data. While the intraday range of $68.08-$69.26 isn't huge, it feels like the market is still trying to find a solid direction after a few weeks of chop. I'm keeping an eye on how this consolidates, especially with broader inflation narratives potentially impacting demand forecasts. For now, not chasing, but it's definitely on the macro radar.

Been watching the $KES for a while now, and the recent action around 122.55 has my antenna twitching. We've seen it test these levels multiple times today, with the intraday high nudging 122.55. It feels like there's a lot of underlying pressure building, whether it's demand for dollars for imports or some institutional flow. The Central Bank has been fairly hands-off lately, or at least not aggressively intervening to strengthen the shilling, which tells me they might be comfortable with a bit more depreciation, or at least don't see it as critical to defend 122.50 with conviction.

My gut feeling, and it's just that – a gut feeling backed by observing previous patterns of consolidation followed by a sharp move, is that we're looking at a decent probability of breaking through 123 within the next 48 hours. I'd put the odds around 60% that we see 123 hit before the end of the week, maybe even seeing a brief spike towards 123.20. Beyond that, it could get interesting. If it does clear 123 with any sort of conviction, then the next psychological level is likely 125, but that's a story for another day. Of course, the market loves to humble a forecast, so don't be surprised if it decides to retrace to 122.00 just to spite me.

Alright folks, let's talk Turkey – specifically the Lira. We've been watching $TRY dance around the 18.60 level against the dollar for what feels like an eternity, currently sitting at 18.6264. The official line from Ankara remains a rather rosy picture, but anyone with a screen knows inflation is running hotter than a summer day in Antalya, unofficially well north of 80% if you talk to locals. The curious thing, of course, is the market's relative calm, or perhaps, its resignation.

My take? The current 'stability' is a mirage, a function of central bank intervention that can't last indefinitely without deeper structural changes. The upcoming elections next year loom large. Erdogan's strategy of low rates to stimulate growth, despite rampant inflation, is a political play aimed at appeasing certain segments of the populace. But it's a house of cards. I'm putting a 65% probability on $TRY breaking decisively past 19.00 against the USD before the end of the year, likely spurred by a combination of further dollar strength and/or an inability to maintain the current level of FX market intervention. It's not about if, but when the pressure becomes too great. The only wild card is a surprise pivot in economic policy, which, let's be frank, seems about as likely as me winning the lottery without buying a ticket. Keep your eyes on the CPI releases; they're the canary in the coal mine, or perhaps, the dervish in the data.

The latest rhetoric from the Fed, even after a mixed jobs report, suggests they're still not entirely comfortable easing up, which means I'm re-assessing my duration exposure and looking at how that might impact equities, especially given $SPY is still hovering near 744.

Watching $CL today, it's been interesting to see it bounce around that $68.08-$69.26 range and end up at $68.78. This sustained push, even if it's not a parabolic move, has me thinking about its broader implications for inflation prints down the line. We've seen how quickly energy costs can filter through the economy, and while the narrative around rate cuts has been gaining traction, a re-acceleration in crude could put the Fed in a tougher spot.

It makes me question how much of the 'inflation conquered' narrative is truly baked in, especially with the Fed's dual mandate. If energy continues to show strength, does it force a re-evaluation of the terminal rate or the pace of any eventual cuts? Definitely keeping a closer eye on the energy sector and related inflation hedges in my watchlist. Also curious to hear if others are seeing this as a temporary blip or a more significant signal for future CPI numbers.

Watching $BABA with interest after the recent dip. It's been range-bound for a while, and the 95.00-96.00 area has provided some decent support in the past, but the overall macro picture is still a bit hazy, especially with ongoing regulatory uncertainty. Given the current lack of a clear catalyst to push it significantly higher, combined with general market choppiness, I'd put the probability of $BABA retesting the 90.00 level before month-end at around 40-45%. A sustained break below 95.00, perhaps on weaker-than-expected economic data out of China, would certainly increase those odds. Conversely, a strong surprise beat on upcoming earnings or any positive news on the regulatory front would quickly invalidate that scenario.

With the CPI print due later this week, I've been looking at how that might impact market sentiment, particularly for anything beyond the mega-caps. I'm curious if others are starting to trim positions or looking for more defensive plays, even if just temporarily. I'm currently holding a decent chunk of $AAVE around 88.06, which has seen some choppiness today but generally held up, but also have $AIQ at 61.85 which has taken a bit of a hit. Thinking about tightening stops or taking some profits on the more volatile names ahead of what could be another sticky inflation number.

Watching the yen pretty closely ahead of next week's BOJ meeting. With $GBPJPY currently sitting around 215.47831, it's clear the market has been pushing yen weakness hard, largely anticipating a continued dovish stance or at least no aggressive tightening. I'm wondering if we'll get any surprises, even subtle ones, that could catch some of the longer yen shorts off guard.

The BoJ has been incredibly consistent, but the sustained yen depreciation and the implications for domestic inflation must be a growing concern. Not looking to take any big bets, but definitely keeping a few pairs on the watchlist for any potential volatility if the rhetoric shifts even slightly.

The yen just popped hard with $JPY at 37.2677. Saw some initial headlines about the BOJ statement, nothing concrete on direct intervention, but the language around economic health and potential for policy adjustment seems to be hardening. It’s not just the standard 'watching FX carefully' line anymore. I'm keeping a close eye on this, specifically what it means for carry trades that have been funded by cheap JPY. If they're serious about letting rates float even marginally, or just jawboning to support the currency, the unwind could get interesting fast. Not jumping in yet, but definitely moving some yen crosses to the top of my watchlist for the next few sessions. Anyone else getting that vibe, or is it just the usual market overreaction to subtle changes in central bank tone?

It's been a interesting few days for $AUDNZD, grinding its way up and now sitting around 1.21513. The general sentiment seems to be leaning towards continued Aussie strength, or at least relative Kiwi weakness, given some of the recent RBNZ rhetoric that cooled expectations.

I'm looking at the 1.2180 level as a potential ceiling for the next week or so. It's a key resistance area from previous price action and seems to be holding as a psychological barrier. While the momentum is up, the pace feels a bit exhausted. I'd put the odds of seeing a sustained break above 1.2180 by the close of next week at roughly 40%. The more probable scenario, in my view, is a consolidation around current levels or a slight retracement, perhaps back to 1.2120 before any fresh catalyst appears. The market seems to be pricing in a lot already, and I'm not seeing the kind of aggressive buying volume needed to push decisively higher without a new narrative.

The upcoming ISM Services PMI is going to be a key indicator for me, particularly the Prices Paid component, given the recent stickiness in services inflation seen in CPI. If we see that cooling, it could provide some much-needed relief for the Fed's stance and influence my longer-term positioning in rate-sensitive assets.

Seeing roughly 65% odds for a 25bps hike in December's FOMC. CPI came in a bit hotter than expected, but the labor market shows some cracks. Powell's recent comments suggest they're still data-dependent, leaning hawkish but not overly aggressive. A strong retail sales number next week could firm up those odds closer to 80%.

Interesting to see the $KESUSD showing a bit of strength today, pushing up to 0.00773994. While it's a relatively small move, it comes at a time when the market is really starting to price in the next CBR decision from the Central Bank of Kenya. With inflation still a factor, though perhaps showing signs of peaking, and the recent rate hikes seemingly taking some hold, the rhetoric around the next meeting will be critical. I'm keeping an eye on it not just for direct $KESUSD plays, but also for any ripple effects it might have on emerging market sentiment more broadly. Any hawkish surprises could certainly see a flight to quality elsewhere, while a more dovish tone might invite more risk appetite into the EM space. My watchlist is poised for some volatility depending on the CBK's stance.

Watching the upcoming March Fed meeting with a keen eye on the dot plot. Current market consensus seems to be pricing in a relatively dovish outlook for 2024 cuts, but I'm not so sure. Given the persistent inflation signals, even if slightly softer, and a resilient labor market, I think there's a good chance we see the median dot for year-end 2024 shift upwards, or at least remain sticky at the current level. If we see fewer than three cuts penciled in for 2024, which I'd put at about a 60% probability, the market will need to reprice, and that could introduce some volatility, particularly for rate-sensitive assets. My reasoning is simple: the Fed is still battling inflation, and they've shown they're willing to err on the side of caution. They'll need more convincing data to signal an aggressive easing cycle. I'm not expecting a hawkish shock, just a reality check that 'higher for longer' might actually mean longer.

API numbers dropped again yesterday, bringing $LCO down to 26.625, yet the bounce wasn't as sharp as I'd expect given the supply squeeze narrative that keeps getting pushed. Seems like demand destruction is finally starting to outweigh the production cuts, at least in perception. This makes me wary of any extended energy rallies and reinforces my focus on more defensive plays or selective shorts in sectors highly exposed to discretionary spending. Also, this could further dampen inflation expectations, potentially giving the Fed more room, which might be a quiet tailwind for crypto if that narrative holds, but $WETH and $DOT are still struggling to hold recent gains today.

Watching $GBPUSD closely today. That -0.30% move to 0.81345 is telling, especially with service inflation staying stubbornly high in the UK. Seems like the market's pricing in a longer, higher rate path from the BoE, or at least a slower pivot than some hoped. Makes me cautious on anything with significant UK exposure on my watchlist; the domestic consumer discretionary plays might take a bigger hit if this translates to tighter credit for longer. Not seeing a clear catalyst for a strong rebound just yet. Still, it's holding above the 0.810 support for now, so not a full breakdown... yet.

Watching the AUDNZD pair today, it's interesting to see it dipping a bit at 1.21486. It's not a huge move, but considering the underlying chatter around the RBA and RBNZ, it’s worth noting. The RBNZ has been pretty clear on their hawkish stance, whereas the RBA seems to be trying to find a balance, especially with recent employment data.

This makes me think about how the market is pricing in future rate differentials. If the RBNZ maintains its aggressive tightening path and the RBA starts to show even the slightest hesitation, that spread could widen further, putting more downward pressure on $AUDNZD. I'm keeping $NZDUSD on my watchlist too, currently at 0.56831. If the kiwi keeps strengthening on rate expectations, that could be a cleaner read. For now, I'm just observing, but the divergence in central bank rhetoric is definitely setting up some interesting scenarios for these pairs.

Looking at the current macro backdrop and how some of the recent CPI prints have been received, there's a decent chance we see $WETH push past $1300 before the end of the month. We're currently hovering around $1200, which has proven to be a somewhat sticky level, but the broader sentiment seems to be shifting cautiously positive. While the Fed remains hawkish on the surface, the market is increasingly pricing in a pivot sooner than later, even if it's just a slowing of the pace of hikes. This provides a tailwind for risk assets, and crypto tends to be a higher-beta play on that sentiment.

The key risk, of course, is another unexpectedly hot inflation print or a truly strong hawkish message from Powell. However, given the recent trend of softening data, albeit gradual, I'd put the odds of a break above $1300 for $WETH by month-end at around 60%. It's not a slam dunk, and a rejection from just above current levels remains a distinct possibility if global equities pull back hard, but the path of least resistance seems to be leaning higher for now. Keep an eye on daily closes above $1220 as confirmation of momentum building.