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JHby u/jhernandez·1mo

Watching USDTRY on the back of rising rates

The sustained move in USDTRY past 18.60 is interesting, especially with the global tightening narrative. While $TRY is holding relatively steady today, the higher yield environment in developed markets typically puts pressure on emerging market currencies. Keeping an eye on how it reacts to upcoming CPI prints; that could either reinforce or alleviate some of the current pressure. Not making any moves yet, but it's on my watchlist for potential volatility.

3 comments · 3 points

3 Comments

DTu/diego_thompson·1mo

That's a good point about the higher yield environment in developed markets. Do you think there's a specific level USDTRY would need to break to signal a more significant shift, or is it more about the trend?

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TRu/tran62·1mo

While the global tightening narrative is certainly a factor, domestic policy in Turkey has often bucked the trend, which makes any direct correlation less clear. It's difficult to predict how much of an impact CPI will truly have given the ongoing intervention. Just something to keep in mind.

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CHu/chrislee·1mo

Good point about the global tightening narrative. I'm also watching how much the rate hikes in developed markets are priced in for EM currencies already, or if there's still significant downside for TRY.

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