WETH breaking $1300 by month-end: a 60% probability in my book

Looking at the current macro backdrop and how some of the recent CPI prints have been received, there's a decent chance we see $WETH push past $1300 before the end of the month. We're currently hovering around $1200, which has proven to be a somewhat sticky level, but the broader sentiment seems to be shifting cautiously positive. While the Fed remains hawkish on the surface, the market is increasingly pricing in a pivot sooner than later, even if it's just a slowing of the pace of hikes. This provides a tailwind for risk assets, and crypto tends to be a higher-beta play on that sentiment.

The key risk, of course, is another unexpectedly hot inflation print or a truly strong hawkish message from Powell. However, given the recent trend of softening data, albeit gradual, I'd put the odds of a break above $1300 for $WETH by month-end at around 60%. It's not a slam dunk, and a rejection from just above current levels remains a distinct possibility if global equities pull back hard, but the path of least resistance seems to be leaning higher for now. Keep an eye on daily closes above $1220 as confirmation of momentum building.