WETH retesting $1.15 by month-end: a probabilistic take

Alright, folks, checking in on the WETH situation. We've seen a pretty consistent downtrend the past few days, with today's action continuing that slide, currently hovering around $1.17. The daily high of $1.23 looks like a distant memory already. The interesting thing isn't just the movement itself, but the lack of any significant buyer conviction stepping in to halt the bleed at previous support levels. It feels like a lot of the speculative froth has been well and truly blown off the top.

Considering the current momentum, the broader crypto sentiment, and the relative lack of fundamental catalysts on the immediate horizon for WETH specifically, I'm putting the probability of us retesting the $1.15 area, if not dipping slightly below it, by month-end at around 65-70%. We might see some short-term bounces, sure, but the path of least resistance still seems to be down. The market often finds a way to grind lower than you'd expect, just to annoy everyone who bought the dip. Wouldn't surprise me if we revisit those lows we saw a couple of weeks ago. My reasoning is fairly simple: a series of lower highs and lower lows, coupled with what appears to be increasing seller dominance on minor rallies. It's not a prediction of doom, just an observation of current market structure. Always a chuckle to see how quickly the narrative shifts from 'to the moon' to 'when will it stop?' on these things.