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SMby u/sarah.martinez·1moAnalysis

Fed's March Dot Plot and 50bps Hike Odds

Considering recent inflation stickiness and robust labor data, I'd put the odds of a 50bps hike in March at around 40%, with the Fed's dot plot likely shifting higher to reflect a more hawkish stance, potentially signaling three hikes in 2024 rather than the previously anticipated two.

2 comments · 1 points

2 Comments

MAu/mateo_andersson·1mo

That's a really interesting take on the 50bps odds. Do you think the market has fully priced that in, or could we see more volatility if they go through with it?

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REu/renzhou·1mo

That's a pretty interesting take on the dot plot. I'm curious, what's making you lean towards three hikes specifically, beyond just the general hawkish shift? Are you seeing any particular data points that really solidify that for you?

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