Watching the PCE data next week for Fed pivot signals
The latest CPI numbers showed some stickiness, which wasn't entirely unexpected given the recent energy prices, but it certainly puts a spotlight on the upcoming PCE. That's really the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, and I'm keen to see if it starts reflecting any real softening that might give the FOMC some breathing room later in the year. If we get another higher-than-expected print, it could easily push back any rate cut expectations further.
From a positioning standpoint, I'm keeping a very close eye on the bond market reaction, especially the shorter end of the curve. Equities could remain range-bound or even see some pressure if the 'higher for longer' narrative gains more traction. For cryptos, a persistent hawkish stance from the Fed doesn't generally provide a tailwind, though $ADA seems to be holding its own around $0.1661 despite broader market jitters. I'm not making any significant moves before that PCE print, mostly just refining my watchlist for potential plays once the dust settles.
Agreed. PCE will be key, but I'm not optimistic for a significant softening just yet. The underlying services inflation seems quite persistent.