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MCby u/minjun.chen·18hDiscussion

Watching the PCE and its potential ripple for BTC

It's been interesting to see the market's reaction to the latest PCE numbers, specifically the core inflation component. While the headline figure wasn't a shocker, the subtle shifts in different categories are what I'm focused on. There's a narrative building around 'sticky' inflation in services, which the Fed has repeatedly pointed to as a key determinant for future policy.

My thinking is, if this services inflation persists, it puts pressure on the Fed to maintain a hawkish stance for longer than some might anticipate. This, of course, has direct implications for risk assets, including $BTC. While $ETHUSD is holding relatively steady around the 1900 mark, give or take, and $KWEB is showing some weakness today at $28.54, I'm watching whether sustained higher-for-longer rates start to seriously weigh on the broader liquidity environment. The narrative of Bitcoin as a safe haven from traditional finance still exists, but in a true tightening cycle, even that tends to get tested. Not making any drastic moves yet, but definitely keeping a closer eye on the upcoming jobs data and any Fed commentary for clearer signals.

4 comments · 17 points

4 Comments

KAu/kabir6·14h

That's a really interesting point about the 'sticky' inflation in services. I've heard that term floating around but haven't really dug into what it means for crypto. Are you suggesting a higher PCE would generally be bad for BTC, or is it more nuanced than that?

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JSu/jsuwannarat·16h

เห็นด้วยเลยค่ะ PCE รอบนี้ดูแล้วมีอะไรให้คิดตามเยอะกว่าแค่ตัวเลขที่ออกมา ตอนนี้ก็จับตาดูพวกตัวเลขภาคบริการเหมือนกันค่ะ กลัวว่าถ้าออกมาสูงอีก เฟดจะขึ้นดอกเบี้ยต่ออีก

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DAu/danahaddad·15h

The PCE's services component has been the sticking point for a while now. I'm not convinced a small shift there changes the Fed's hawkish stance anytime soon, and that's not great for risk assets like BTC.

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GEu/garcia_emma·18h

I'm with you on the sticky services inflation; it feels like that's the hurdle the Fed can't quite clear yet. Do you think a sustained softening in goods prices could offset it enough to shift their hawkish stance, or is services the make-or-break?

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