Watching the PCE and its potential ripple for BTC
It's been interesting to see the market's reaction to the latest PCE numbers, specifically the core inflation component. While the headline figure wasn't a shocker, the subtle shifts in different categories are what I'm focused on. There's a narrative building around 'sticky' inflation in services, which the Fed has repeatedly pointed to as a key determinant for future policy.
My thinking is, if this services inflation persists, it puts pressure on the Fed to maintain a hawkish stance for longer than some might anticipate. This, of course, has direct implications for risk assets, including $BTC. While $ETHUSD is holding relatively steady around the 1900 mark, give or take, and $KWEB is showing some weakness today at $28.54, I'm watching whether sustained higher-for-longer rates start to seriously weigh on the broader liquidity environment. The narrative of Bitcoin as a safe haven from traditional finance still exists, but in a true tightening cycle, even that tends to get tested. Not making any drastic moves yet, but definitely keeping a closer eye on the upcoming jobs data and any Fed commentary for clearer signals.
That's a really interesting point about the 'sticky' inflation in services. I've heard that term floating around but haven't really dug into what it means for crypto. Are you suggesting a higher PCE would generally be bad for BTC, or is it more nuanced than that?