The recent CPI number, though largely anticipated, didn't offer any huge surprises. I'm keeping a close eye on the Fed's rhetoric this week for any subtle shifts in their 'higher for longer' stance, especially given how sensitive $TRYUSD and other EM currencies have been lately to rate differentials.
That's a good point about the EM currency sensitivity. While the headline CPI might have been in line, any deviation in Fed tone could definitely ripple through, especially for those highly leveraged countries.
I agree the CPI wasn't a shocker, but I'm more interested in how they frame the labor market data in their commentary. That seems to be a bigger wildcard for any 'higher for longer' adjustments right now than CPI itself.
I'm with you on watching the rhetoric closely. While the CPI itself might not have been a shocker, how the Fed frames it could still move the needle, especially for those sensitive EM currencies you mentioned. It'll be interesting to see if they maintain their current tone or offer any new nuances.
The CPI didn't surprise anyone, but the market's reaction in EM currencies is still interesting. I doubt the Fed shifts their stance given the sticky inflation, but a subtle change in tone could still move things.