USDTHB and the curious case of the disappearing rate cut

Alright folks, casting an eye on $USDTHB here, which is sitting around 33.64 today, bouncing between 33.57 and 33.7. The chatter pre-election was all about a potential rate cut from the BOT, or at least the imminence of one. But post-election? Silence, mostly. The new government seems to have other priorities, and frankly, the inflation picture isn't screaming for a cut, even if growth could use a nudge.

So, my probabilistic take: I'm putting the odds of a BOT rate cut before Q1 2024 at a mere 25%. My reasoning is simple: political capital. The new administration will want to make its mark with fiscal measures first, and the BOT, ever the cautious independent, won't rush to ease unless the economic data undeniably demands it. With tourism bouncing back nicely, and external demand holding up better than some feared, I just don't see the urgency. We could see $USDTHB grind higher towards 34.00, perhaps even testing 34.20 by year-end, if the rate cut narrative remains muted. Conversely, if some surprise macro shock hits, all bets are off, but for now, the path of least resistance for the pair seems to be north, or at least a firm sideways.