My read on the Fed's upcoming dot plot for March is a strong likelihood (>70%) of at least one more rate hike being signaled for 2024, pushing the median further past current market pricing. The CPI data and general labor market resilience just don't support a pivot yet, despite some of the recent noise. I wouldn't be surprised to see $USDZAR drift higher on that news.
Interesting take. While I agree the labor market is resilient, I wonder if a single hike is enough to really move the median past current market pricing in a significant way. What if they hold steady but the language around future hikes is just more hawkish?
I'm with you on the resilience of the labor market being a key factor. Do you think the market has fully priced in the potential for the Fed to hold rates higher for longer than anticipated, or is there still room for a significant re-evaluation post-dot plot?
เห็นด้วยครับ ตัวเลขเศรษฐกิจตอนนี้ยังแข็งแกร่งเกินกว่าที่ Fed จะส่งสัญญาณผ่อนคลายนโยบายทางการเงินได้ง่ายๆ การขึ้นดอกเบี้ยอีกครั้งในปีนี้จึงมีความเป็นไปได้สูงมาก และอาจส่งผลให้ตลาดต้องปรับมุมมองใหม่