Fed's March Dot Plot - Higher for Longer Confirmation Odds

Watching the March FOMC closely. I'd put the odds at about 70% that the new dot plot reinforces a 'higher for longer' narrative, likely pushing the median for end-2024 slightly up from current projections, or at least showing fewer cuts than the market's currently pricing in. Reasoning is two-fold: recent strong payrolls data coupled with sticky core CPI suggests the Fed has more leeway and less urgency to ease. Additionally, various Fed speak leans hawkish. We're not seeing the kind of economic deterioration that would force their hand towards dovishness yet. This could put renewed pressure on risk assets, especially if growth equities are still valued for a rapid rate pivot.